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Anonymous A
on Jul 24, 2021
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market Sizing - EV Charging Stations

I was recently asked in one of the interviews to do sizing for number of EV Charging stations required in the next 10 years. Can somebody suggest me ways in which I can go about it?

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Top answer
Agrim
Coach
on Jul 24, 2021
#1 Awarded Coach | BCG Dubai Project Leader | Master Casing in only 3 Hours | 10y in Consulting | Free Intro Call

Hi Anon,

This question seems to be doing the rounds lately.

Assuming that this question was the entire interview and not a small sizing part within an overall case - I would suggest approaching such market sizing questions by breaking them down into the smallest possible elements where you can take some asumptions. These elements can then be built up in a bottom-up manner mathematically. This approach will always help you to think in a more structured manner and demonstrate very strong problem solving skills. It will also help you arrive at the final answer with the right level of granularity.

I have customized one of my market sizing templates for your question in this case. Attaching the image below for your reference. Let me know if you have any questions. Hope this helps!

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Ian
Coach
edited on Jul 24, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

Ultimately, you should try this yourself before asking - you'll learn a lot more! That said, see below for a related market sizing that should give you guidance on how to solve this one.

SIMILAR SOLUTION - EV CHARGING STATIONS IN HO CHI MINH

Question: Number of electronic charging station (For electric car vehicle) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in the next 10 years? 

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

By # of Electric Cars

  1. Population of Ho Chi Minh - Around 8 million?
  2. # of adults - Around 5-6 million
  3. # of cars per person - around .5 (probably 1 per household)
  4. % of electric vehicles expected in 10 years -
    1. highly variable based on country.
    2. While Vietnam is a developing country (points against), they are also command-and-control communist and are capable of big change (points for).
    3. The global rate of EV uptake will probably equate to 1% of the global fleet each year (obviously less now, more later). So, perhaps 10% globally? Let's place vietnam around there
  5. ​Big consideration: Charging stations are a leading investment to electric cars. So, you need capacity there before demand hits. We will probably need around 1 charging station per vehicle (docking at night). And this would need to lead by a few years. So, we might need charging stations for 15% of the Vietnamese car fleet (instead of 10%)
  6. Answer = 375,000 - 450,000 charging stations:
    1. (5 - 6 million people) X (.5 cars per person) X (15%)

Market Sizing Explanation 1

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Market Sizing Explanation 2

Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

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Antonello
Coach
on Jul 24, 2021
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Hi, in addition to the great solution proposed in the discussion, I would like to suggest similar cases in the platform to practice with:

  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-much-would-you-charge-to-clean-all-the-windows-in-seattle-4965
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/market-sizing-milk-consumption-5087
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-calculate-the-value-of-a-cow-4982
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/estimate-number-of-traffic-lights-in-a-london-5692

Hope it helps,
Antonello

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Anonymous C
on Jul 24, 2021

Just curious if this was for a MBB interview?

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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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