Hi everyone! I stumbled across this case: how many self-driving cars are needed to replace the public transportation system in a city
How would you solve this? I find it quite tricky.
(edited)
Market Sizing Case
Overview of answers
Upvotes
Best answer
Interesting question! If you actually want to learn how to do these kind of estimations, try to come up with some structure to do the estimation, there is a lot of learning in that compared to just reading other peoples thoughts.
Some important steps I would consider are:
-How many people are currently using public transportation?
Linked to that are some important subquestions: What are the modes of transportation? Why are they taking these modes of transportation? And how does the demand vary over the day?
-How many self driving cars do we need to meet this current demand?
How many people fit into self-driving cars? Do we also have self-driving buses? Are people willing to rideshare? And maybe most importantly how can we make sure that the capacity is sufficient to account for peaks in demand (e.g. rush hour)
-Do we need to factor in that the availability of self-driving cars will change the behaviour of other people? E.g. If I used to ride my bike, I might now take a self-driving car to work
Hope this helps!
(edited)
Was this answer helpful?
Hi,
What's your approach?
A quick tip - start with calculating the demand in peak hour:
The total supply of self driving cars = the supply to cover the demand + safety stock
Make an assumption on how many seats the cars will have and how many rides can be shared
Take into account the cannibalization - it may be the case that car owners will switch as well.
Best!
Was this answer helpful?
Related Cases
Company case by Oliver Wyman
Style:
Your client, large automotive OEM WyCar, has developed its first fully electric vehicle (EV) and introduced it as a pilot on the Austrian market last year. However, sales have been far below the expected numbers. The management has engaged you to support them in understanding the reasons and advise
...
Your client, large automotive OEM WyCar, has developed its first fully electric vehicle (EV) and introduced it as a pilot on the Austrian market last year. However, sales have been far below
...
(Open whole case)
121.4k
Times solved
Intermediate
Difficulty
Company case by Bain & Company
Style:
You have inherited the “Old Winery” from your grandfather, a winery that has been family-owned for five generations and can be dated back to the 16th century.Half of the eleven hectares are used to grow white grapes, the other half to grow red grapes. They are grown in a conventional way, i.e. they
...
You have inherited the “Old Winery” from your grandfather, a winery that has been family-owned for five generations and can be dated back to the 16th century.Half of the eleven hectares are
...
(Open whole case)
118.1k
Times solved
Intermediate
Difficulty
Company case by Roland Berger
Style:
Onlinestar, an online retailer of furniture and garden products (core business), has grown significantly in recent years as a result of an expansion of its product portfolio. The company mainly imports goods from Chinese manufacturers but also operates its own production of cat lavatories (special b
...
Onlinestar, an online retailer of furniture and garden products (core business), has grown significantly in recent years as a result of an expansion of its product portfolio. The company mai
...
(Open whole case)
92.3k
Times solved
Intermediate
Difficulty
Company case by RWE Consulting
Style:
RWE has reliably supplied people and companies with electricity for more than 120 years with activities around the world with a clear focus on growth. The company is pushing the energy transition to climate neutrality with focus on renewable energy sources like offshore or onshore wind as well as ph
...
RWE has reliably supplied people and companies with electricity for more than 120 years with activities around the world with a clear focus on growth. The company is pushing the energy trans
...
(Open whole case)
16.3k
Times solved
Intermediate
Difficulty
Company case by E.ON Inhouse Consulting
Climate change has become one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century, and with roughly 75% of all CO₂ emissions coming from energy, this sector plays a key role in the transition to a reduced carbon footprint. E.ON has taken up on the challenge to promote more sustainable and efficient energy
...
Climate change has become one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century, and with roughly 75% of all CO₂ emissions coming from energy, this sector plays a key role in the transition to a
...
(Open whole case)
5.0k
Times solved
Intermediate
Difficulty