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Anonymous A
on Jul 17, 2023
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market sizing approach: formula or decision tree?

As for market sizing, I'm wondering which approach would be better and easier to communicate? Are there any tips on which approach works better in specific market sizing question types?

Right now I'm practicing the decision tree approach, which could help to go further down to different layers of drivers, but on the flip side sometimes it's harder to explain such structure in a simple and neat way. Any thoughts please?

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Top answer
Ian
Coach
on Jul 17, 2023
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

It's both….

Like, you have a “decision tree” (not the right name, but you have a tree), and you're multiplying those branches together.

You need to articulate both together.

As in, give the overall approach, then as you dive in, stay structured and give overall approach + explicit math associated with that.

As part of my coaching I provide my candidates videos of market sizing solutions and my articulation of them - so that they can see what optimal looks like. Feel free to reach out for these!

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Cristian
Coach
on Jul 18, 2023
#1 rated McKinsey Coach

Hi there, 

Both work. 

But it's not so much about the method. Instead, it's about how effectively and clearly you communicate the method to the interviewer. 

At the end of the day, the interview is meant to simulate the conversation with the client. What you should be optimising for is not how ‘correct’ your approach is, but how well do you manage to co-create your approach with the interviewer so you get their buy-in. Just like you would do it with a client. 

Best,
Cristian

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Agrim
Coach
on Jul 18, 2023
#1 Awarded Coach | BCG Dubai Project Leader | Master Casing in only 3 Hours | 10y in Consulting | Free Intro Call

Both approaches are good, and neither approach is good as well.

Depends completely on the sizing problem.

There are many more approaches beyond formula and decision tree - I would be more than happy to guide you through them. Pls feel free to DM me if you'd like.

No matter which approach you take - the key is to be able to communicate it nicely and execute it correctly while maintaining grounded logic and sound assumptions.

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Andi
Coach
on Aug 31, 2023
BCG 1st & Final Round interviewer | Personalized prep with >95% success rate | 7yrs coaching | Experienced Hires

Hi there,

tree structures usually have benefits for both the logical decomposition AND the comms. For the latter, a tree format will make it much easier to communicate in a top-down manner. Doesn't mean that you have to go down all the way when you explain - if the tree has a lot of layers, may just summarize the lower ones in your explanation to reduce complexity in your comms.

Hope this helps.

Regards, Andi

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Hagen
Coach
on Jul 19, 2023
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

I would be happy to share my thoughts on your question:

  • First of all, both the formula-based and the decision-tree approach have their advantages. The choice between the two often depends on the complexity and context of the market size estimation. However, I would advise you to stick with the decision-tree approach you're currently practicing. It offers flexibility to incorporate various factors, allows for structured thinking, and demonstrates your analytical capabilities to the interviewer.
  • Moreover, to better communicate your decision tree, strive to keep your tree simple, limit the number of branches, and be clear about your assumptions. Also, always make sure to explain your thought process out loud when working through the problem, so the interviewer understands your reasoning.
  • Lastly, however, please keep in mind that most major strategy consulting companies have not used standalone market size estimations for a long time. While this does not mean it never happens, this type of case study question may not be very meaningful for both the candidate and interviewer, as only a few skills are being tested. That being said, simpler market size estimations may still be a part of a case study, for instance when estimating the revenues of the client company is required.

If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to best prepare for your upcoming interviews, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.

Best,

Hagen

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Clara
Coach
on Aug 31, 2023
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

Precisely for the high amount of questions (1) asked by my coachees and students and (2) present in this Q&A, I created the “Economic and Financial concepts for MBB interviews”, recently published in PrepLounge’s shop (https://www.preplounge.com/en/shop/prep-guide/economic_and_financial_concepts_for_mbb_interviews).

After +5 years of candidate coaching and university teaching, and after having seen hundreds of cases, I realized that the economic-related knowledge needed to master case interviews is not much, and not complex. However, you need to know where to focus! Hence, I created the guide that I wish I could have had, summarizing the most important economic and financial concepts needed to solve consulting cases, combining key concepts theorical reviews and a hands-on methodology with examples and ad-hoc practice cases.

It focuses on 4 core topics, divided in chapters (each of them ranked in scale of importance, to help you maximize your time in short preparations):

·        Economic concepts: Profitability equation, Break even, Valuation methods (economic, market and asset), Payback period, NPV and IRR, + 3 practice cases to put it all together in a practical way.

·        Financial concepts: Balance sheet, Income statement/P&L and Performance ratios (based on sales and based on investment), +1 practice case

·        Market structure & pricing: Market types, Perfect competition markets (demand and supply), Willingness to pay, Pricing approaches, Market segmentation and Price elasticity of demand, +1 practice case

·        Marketing and Customer Acquisition: Sales funnel, Key marketing metrics (CAC and CLV) and Churn, +1 practice case

Feel free to PM me for disccount codes for the guide, and I hope it helps you rock your interviews!

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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