Hi, I need to work out the market size for car subscriptions in Singapore.
I am thinking of taking all driving license owners in the city and then assuming that maybe 70% would be open to the concept. Or I take all citizens that are between 18 and 70 because they could potentially get a driving license if car ownership gets easier.
Can someone point me in the right direction how to approach this?
Hi there,
That's too simplified! You can't just take a random # out of the population and call it a day.
Market sizing is about breaking the problem down into logical segments that move you from guessing towards estimating.
I would personally eliminate age groups as you've mentioned, and then segment the population by income. Income is going to dramatically affect who can own a car or not.
How to think about Market Sizing
It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.
Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!
Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!
Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!
Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.
For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.
Some tips:
An Example
Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229
And here's a practice Q&A:
This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.
OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.
(edited)
In the real world, all the people that don't have a driving license but could be eligible to get one are potential future customers that you might want to target.
However for the case market sizing, we are only considering potential customers that are ready to purchase the product, therefore the second category wouldn't apply.
Although there are different ways of structuring this market sizing, what I would recommend is:
Number of people in Singapore between 18 and 80
Assume % of them that have a driving license
Assume % people potentially interested in this service (and justify why)
Assume % of people that would end up buying the subscription (Potential Customers)
Multiply:
Potential customers * Subscription price * subscription contract length
Some interviewers might ask for a more complex approach (based on customer segmentation for example), but I'd recommend starting with a simple approach, and making it more complex only if required. This will reduce the margin of error and the assumption made.
Hope this helped, and if you would require any additional support, please don't hesitate to book a coaching session on my profile. I'd be happy to help!
Good luck!
