How could one estimate the cannabis market (in tons) in germany per year?
My approach would be:
1. number of tons of cannabis as stimulant per year + 2. number of tons of cannabis as medicine.
1.1. number of consuming people x number of grams on average per year
Number of people consuming =>
12-17 years: 5 million (assuming an evenly distributed population and an average age of 80 years), of which every 10th = 500,000
18-25 years: 5 million, of which every 2-3 = 2 million
26-35 years: 10 million, of which every 10th =>1 million
36 +: 45 million, of which every 100 => 450,000
= approx. 4 million
1.2. number of grams on average
high consumption (10%): 1 gram joint every day on average => 30 grams/month => 360 grams/year
medium consumption (60%): 1 gram per week => 52 grams per year
low consumption (30%): 1 gram per year
=> 360x0.1 + 52 x 0.6 + 1 x 0.3 = approx. 68 grams / year
= 272 tonnes per year
2.1 Number of patients who need cannabis medicinally x average grams per year
Number of patients: Patients with severe medical conditions who need it x Use of cannabis as medicine of choice = 80mil x 0.1% x 10% = 80,000
average grams per year: assumption mostly chronic conditions, so use over several years:
1 gram daily = 30grams / month = 360 grams / year
80,000 x 540 grams = 28 tonnes
total: 272 tonnes + 28 tonnes = 300 tonnes
Looking forward for feedback!
Thank you for your answer. Concerning this aspect: „You're missing rate of smoking per age group Younger people smoke more than older. You have to account for this.“ would it be okay if I took this aspect into account when setting the base rates for high, medium and low consumption. OR To get to the number of grams, would you segment by age group instead of high medium and low consumption? Thank you in advance!
So, remember, there’s no such thing as segmenting by “high, medium, and low”. Because that’s made up! A lot of beginners do this, but true consultants don’t! You HAVE to segment by age…because that’s an actual thing. Segment by age and within those segments do pop * rate of smoking. Make sense?
Okay, understood. So I did „pop x %smoke“ under 1.1. can I then use these numbers? So for example for the age group 12-17 years: 5mio x 1/10 (due to the obseveration in my personal environment) = 500,000 Assumption: in this age group 10% smoke 1 Gramm daily, 40% every two weeks 1 Gramm and 50% only one Gramm a year = 50,000 x 360 Gramm + 200,000 x 100 Gramm + 250,000 x 1 Gramm = 38,25 Tonnen And I would have to use this procedure for the other age groups as well. Is this correct?
Too much. You’ve overcomplicating now. Because now you’re making up numbers. Remember, you’re not ASSUMING, you are ESTIMATING. So, in this case, it’s more reasonable to just say 15% of age group x smokes. The ones that do (as a whole) on average, smoke x times per week/month. There’s no one right answer with market sizing but there are a LOT of wrong ones (going to wrong level of detail, guessing/assuming numbers, etc). This is hard to get across and hard to learn by text…please message for coaching!