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Anonymous A
on Nov 04, 2021
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

How many Starbucks stores are in the US? Market Sizing

I don't have a problem with sizing the market for a general product, like the US coffee market or the US mattress market, but I'm having trouble estimating the # of specific stores, for example, this question. 

I've tried breaking it down, but I keep getting stumped. I'll write out what I've thought of so far. 

Since coffee is the primary product (at least in the US) I thought of doing: 

(# of daily coffee drinkers in US) / (# of customers/store/day)

Obviously, I would break each of the branches down much, much more, but if I were to make a tree, those would be the first branches. However, there are a few issues with this. The demand for coffee in general, isn't what drives the creation of a Sbux store, right? Or is it? I'm not sure. Second, while coffee might be the primary product, they have so many other types of drinks that this wouldn't account for. 

To make it more specific, I thought of doing: 

(# of people in US who go to a Starbucks each day) / (# of customers/store/day) 

Once again, I would break these branches down way more, but these would be the first branches. This doesn't seem right either. It seems like the first component would call for too many assumptions. If I were to break that component down further, I would probably look at the # of coffee drinkers → (US population) (% who drink coffee), I'd also make sure to focus on the relevant population, then those who drink coffee regularly. I'd also consider the # who drink coffee at home v. purchase elsewhere, then I'd consider % who go to Starbucks as opposed to other large suppliers. Overall, however, this is just not a good line of reasoning. I think it calls for far too many assumptions. 

I'm really hoping someone can walk me through a full problem breakdown because, as you can see, I've clearly tried to think this out on my own. I've only seen vague answers so far, and they have not been helpful. I have an interview very soon, so I would really appreciate some assistance.

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Top answer
Pedro
Coach
edited on Jan 04, 2024
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

Using this approach or not depends on whether you need something quickly vs. having a full interview focused on market sizing. 

Here's the quick approach (for a quick estimation, or to quickly test an estimation you have already done)

I lived in a small town in the US that had ~150.000 people and had 3 starbuck stores (town + neighbouring county). So that's about 1 starbuck per 50.000 population. 

So the formula here is: US Population / (Population per starbucks): 330 000 000 / 50 000 = 6600.

Real number of starbucks stores is actually ~6400. :)

Here's the “more complete” way of doing this (only use this if you have the time… or even better, clarify with the interviewer which method is preferred): 

# starbucks = Number of Coffees consumed per day / Coffee Shop capacity per day * Starbucks market share.

  • Number of coffees consumed per day: Population * % drinks coffee * % drinking in coffee shops * average per day consumption
  • Coffee Shop Capacity: Number of tables / table rotation + Take out ratio + drive thru capacity or ratio (or easier: hours open / time it takes to prepare a coffee * number of baristas * utilization rate)
  • Market share: % of premium market / number of relevant players.
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Ian
Coach
on Nov 04, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

You're trying a top-down approach which is going to make life difficult for you. In particular because you'll have to completely guess once you get to the # “% of all coffee drunk that is from Starbucks”.

Rather, why not try a bottom up approach?

Think about the following:

  1. Where do you live? (State, city, etc.)
  2. How many starbucks are there in that area?
  3. Is where you live representative of the US (if so, to what extent, if not, would it have more or fewer than the average?)
  4. Leverage 1-3 to extrapolate out to the rest of the US
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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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