My question is when should you say your hypothesis? .
Scenario 1 : there are two main drivers for profit which is revenues and costs. This is my main two buckets and before I dive deep into them my initial hypothesis is xx
Scenario 2: i read out my whole structure then state my hypothesis.
And how wide is the hypothesis in the beginning? What could it be for example for a profitability case?
I get this question a lot, and I think there’s a common misunderstanding here.
A hypothesis is not a guess. It should be based on some evidence or logic, not something you “throw in” at the start.
So for your two scenarios: I wouldn’t do either. Stating a hypothesis right after reading the prompt or right after your structure is, in most cases, just guessing; and that doesn’t add value. At the beginning of a case, your job is to:
Not to predict the answer without data.
The only exception is if you have very specific prior experience in that exact industry; then you can say something like: “In similar situations I’ve seen X being the main driver, so I’ll keep that in mind as we analyze.”
But even that should be light, not a strong claim.
The right moment to use hypotheses is during the analysis. For example, after looking at a chart or doing a calculation, you can say: “Based on what we’re seeing, I’d hypothesize that the issue is coming from X rather than Y.”
That’s much stronger because it’s grounded in evidence.
For a profitability case, a good hypothesis would be something like: “Given revenues seem stable and costs have increased, I’d focus on cost drivers as the likely root cause.”
Bottom line: don’t force a hypothesis at the start; build it as you learn more.
Hope this helps,
Franco
