How many cars use the m25 motorway daily?

Guesstimate
New answer on Jun 09, 2020
3 Answers
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Sachin asked on Jun 04, 2020

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Clara
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replied on Jun 04, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello Sachin!

It´s the classical market sizing, and there are many ways to tackle it.

PM me if you want, since one of my cases precisely is about the privatization of a highway, including a market sizing on the number of users.

One of many options:

  • Total population in London and surroundings
  • % of them who transit on a weekly basis
    • Working population
    • Weekend population
  • % of them who do so by using the motorway, splitting
    • Private cars and car sharing
    • Buses
    • Perhaps some trucks or commercial vehicles on top

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

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Ian
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replied on Jun 04, 2020
MBB | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi Sachin,

First, you need to be very careful with daily! Are we talking weekends, weekdays, or overall?

Estimation of those using m25 for work

  1. Population of london (and surrounding areas)
  2. % of commuting population
    1. % commuting during the week
    2. % commuting during weekend (service workers, etc.)
  3. % of commuting population not living in central london and not using public transport

​Estimation of those using m25 for leisure

  1. Population of london (and surrounding areas)
  2. Population segments (age and/or affluence)
    1. % in each group that own a car
    2. # of daily leisure uses for each group (note: You should definitely assume weekend #s are higher)
    3. % of trips that require m25 motorway

Then add the two together :)

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Anonymous replied on Jun 09, 2020

Hello,

Completely agree with the proposed approaches but I could have started with a segmentation into 3 buckets

1) People who go to work or come back from work

2) vacationers or people passing through (probably with a peak at Christmas and during summer vacation periods).

3) Road workers (trucks, salespeople, ...)

Best,

David

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Clara

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