Consulting Consulting
Consulting Finance General
Login Sign up for free Sign up for free
Consulting Finance General
Community
Meeting Board
Consulting Q&A
Interview Partner
Premium Membership
Coaching
Coaches
Coaching Packages
Consulting Q&A
Resources
Case Interview Basics
Case Library
AI Casebot
Tests & Guides
Mental Math Tool
Stress Questions
Drills
Video Tutorials
Brainteaser
Career
Employers
Career Events
Consulting Jobs
Consulting Blog
Sign up for free
Login
Community
Meeting Board
Consulting Q&A
Interview Partner
Premium Membership
Coaching
Coaches
Coaching Packages
Consulting Q&A
Resources
Case Interview Basics
Case Library
AI Casebot
Tests & Guides
Mental Math Tool
Stress Questions
Drills
Video Tutorials
Brainteaser
Career
Employers
Career Events
Consulting Jobs
Consulting Blog
Schedule mock interviews on the Meeting Board, join the latest community discussions in our Consulting Q&A and find like-minded Interview Partners to connect and practice with!
Meeting Board
Consulting Q&A
Interview Partner
Premium Membership
Back to overview
PK
on Apr 10, 2020
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Estimate the number of uber rides?

Assuming:

  • Talking about uber car-based rides and not scooters, public transit, or helicopter. 

  • This is # of rides per day. 

  • US only.

Approach:

Estimate the # of uber riders x their average number of rides per day.  --- (a)

Splitting (a) by power users, normal users dormant users. 

Estimate the volume of each of the above user types and count their rides/day separately.

US population = 300M

Target Uber audience in the range 15-65, with average life expectance of 80 years. 

Thus,  the target user count 50/80x300M = 190M

Assuming 70% of these users actually use Uber → 130M users

Based on my experience seeing users, 20% of users, in general, tend to be power ridesharing user, they use it atleast 1 time a week. 

60% are normal users - Use it atleast 1 time a month

20% are dormant users use it once every quarter,

  1. 26M power → Daily rides →  26M/7 rides per day → 3.7M rides/day

  2. 26M casual users → 26M/90 rides per day → 0.2M rides/day

  3. 78M normal users → 78M/30 rides per day → 2.6 M rides/day

Thus total rides per day → 3.7M + 0.2M + 2.6M ~6.5M rides per day

Any feedback on my approach and assumptions?

9
15.1k
85
Write an answer
Be the first to answer!
Nobody has responded to this question yet.
Top answer
Emily
Coach
on Apr 10, 2020
9 years in MBB Southeast Asia & China| 8 years as MBB interviewer | Free intro call

Hi PK,

Overall a good and logical approach!

Just some small points on assumptions.

(1) 70% penetration of ride-hailing seems high. While it could be possible in the big metropolitan cities like NY or SF, outside the handful of big cities the penetration rate would be rather low.

(2) Don't forget there is Lyft also. So besides the 70% penetration rate, you probably need to think about market share as well. At the moment Lyft probably is comparable or just a bit smaller than Uber? 

Cheers,

Emily

9
Contact coach
0 comments
Deleted
Coach
on Apr 11, 2020
150+ interviews | 6+ years experience | Bain, Kearney & Accenture | Exited startup| London Business School

Hi PK,

Generally a very solid approach. What would give you plus points is to sanity check the numbers throughout. Complementary to what others have said the numbers are high.

1) The general consensus is that this 70% is way too high and this might a bias that you want to be aware of (given your tech background). What would have scored you extra points are to think about alternative modes of transportation and that would have prompted you that 70% is likely to be high. Having said that, your segmentation somewhat corrects for this. 

2) Second, clear reasoning on the 70% is missing as well. For these high impact numbers, it is smart to mention why you made that assumption (even if it is based on your own experience).

3) Important with market sizing questions is to do a quick sensitivity check at the end. E.g. acknowledging that your analysis is based on a few sensitive decisions/data points. 

6
Contact coach
0 comments
Sanjeev
Coach
on Apr 10, 2020
PwC/Strategy&/GT/Chicago Booth - 2nd Session Complementary till June 1st

Hi PK,

A reasonably good and detailed approach....I like your segmentation. Few points that could make it stronger:

1. Market share - The addressable market for ride sharing - 70% assumption seems high considering so may alternatives (own car, public transport in arge cities, etc). In addition, you have to add a "market share" factor for Uber which would reduce the potential Uber rider population

2.  Reality check - Once you come up with market estimation, always do a gut check. Your 6.5M rides per day seems v. large (2% of US population or 1 in 50 people will take Uber). A lot of people forget to do this - a good way to differentiate yourself (also a desirable characteristics for a Consultant).

Good luck!

Sanjeev

5
Contact coach
0 comments
Deleted
Coach
on Apr 10, 2020
Bain Consultant | Interviewer for 3 years at Bain |Passionate about coaching |I will make you a case interview Rockstar

Hi PK,

Overall I think your approach makes sense. I have a few ideas which I think could improve the market sizing even further:

1. Remove U.S. Population that does not live in urban areas or outside the 300 or so cities in which Uber has a presence. Around 50% of people in developed countries live in urban areas so that could be an easy assumption to use.

2. Reduce overall % of people that are Uber as 70% seems a little bit high to me.

3. Account for Uber's market share in the market. You have other competitors such as Lyft to account for. 

Another way to think of this market sizing problem would be to start with the US population and try to estimate how many trips of various kinds that people would need to undertake per day, then what share Uber rides what take from the total. 

5
Contact coach
0 comments
Deleted user
on Apr 10, 2020

Hello PK,

I can see at least two different approachs for this estimation.

You can either think about (i) the # of users, like you did, or (ii) the # of drivers. To choose one, think about which one has a lower level of uncertainty on your assumptions.For instance, why do you believe 70% of target users actually use Uber? How can you anchor and justify this number?

Personally, I would choose the second options because I believe it is easier to justify the assumptions needed:

* # drivers in the US 

* Drivers segmentation: full-time vs part-time 

* Average working hours for both full-time and part-time 

* Average rides per hour: average ride (min)  + average waiting time (min)

Please note that we can add as many layers of complexity as we wish. For example, we could have split working hours into peak and non-peak.

Try this approach to do the estimation and, then, we can discuss your assumptions as well.

Also, use it to double check your first answer!

Cheers,

4
3 comments
RUBEN
on Apr 20, 2020
Hi Raphael, how would you make a solid assumption for the # of drivers in the US? I know is a common practice for some consultants but sometimes it seems like getting one's finger in the air. I assume we do not do another market sizing to get the number, we just make an assumption. Ruben
Deleted user
Coach
on Apr 21, 2020
Ruben, you are right. Usually, a candidate will not have time to do this "extra" estimation. So, you will have to make an assumption and here is important to show your business sense. Nobody has to know the exact number of Uber drivers in the US, but you are supposed to know the order of magnitude of this number. Are we talking about thousands or millions of drivers? Here, we cannot commit this kind of mistake.
Deleted user
Coach
on Apr 21, 2020
If a candidates says "Let's assume there are 1 MM Uber drivers in the US", the interviewer could say "Humm, I think this number is a little bit low. Let's use 2 MM instead" and then you continue the case.
Clara
Coach
on Apr 10, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Again, good logic but too high estimations

3
Contact coach
0 comments
Antonello
Coach
edited on Apr 30, 2020
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Hi, I think it is a good approach. Always try to stay in 20 minutes and - if needed - accelerate some estimations by asking to the interviewer

Best,
Antonello

0
Contact coach
0 comments
Deleted
Coach
on Jun 29, 2020
FREE 1st session in November | From Lawyer to MBB | Top in FIT | 10x your structuring skills | Message to get Free Prep Checklist

Hi,

Your approach is indeed a good one.

If you want to master your market sizing skills I suggest you focus on segmentations patterns. You can use the following segmentation for market sizes:

B2C:
-Demographics (Age, education, income, family size, race, gender, occupation, nationality)
-Behavioral (Purchasing behavior, customer journey stage, occasion & timing,
customer loyalty & interest, risk tolerance, user status) 
-Psychographic (Lifestyle, personality traits, values, opinions, interests of consumers) 
-Geographic (Geographical boundaries)

B2B:
-Company characteristics (Industry, company size, number of employees)
-Geography (Geographical boundaries)
-Purchasing Approach (Occasion & timing, customer capabilities, nature of existing relationship) 
-Personal Characteristics (Loyalty, risk attitude, user status)

B2G:
-Demographics  (Type of agency, size of budget, the amount of autonomy) 
-Geographic (Geographical boundaries) 
-Government Tier (Federal , State, Local, Quasi-governmental, International)
-Bid type (Closed, Open)

But sometimes you don’t need to segmentation. Here is an example of case that could be solved with high level top down approach - estimate the size of credit card market in the US:
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-should-i-approach-the-following-question-estimate-the-market-size-of-credit-cards-in-the-us-6695

0
Contact coach
0 comments
Dhiraj
on Sep 07, 2020

Question - Estimate the number of Uber rides?

Clarifying questions and Assumptions -

Considering only the Delhi NCR region, India

Calculating # no rides per day

Will consider all cab rides (Uber go, Sedan, premier, auto, bike, share, etc) but not food delivery rides

Approach: To come to a reasonable number I will user below equation

# number of Uber rides in Delhi NCR per day = #of uber users * avg. no of rides

Now I will calculate the number of uber users in the Delhi NCR region

The total population of Delhi NCR = 20M

Internet and smartphone users = ~50% so the remaining number is 10M

Assuming the target audience which might use online cab services is 60% which makes it 6M.

Assuming Uber and OLA being 2 major players in the NCR region with equal market share so uber’s market share is approximately 50% which implies 3M users of UBER in Delhi NCR

Now to calculate avg no of rides per day I will break the Uber users in the following segments - 

Power users = 10% of 3M = 0.3M and takes 10 rides per week making ~0.42 M rides per day

Daily users = 20% of 3M = 0.6M and takes 5 rides per week making ~0.42 M rides per day

Frequent users = 30% of 3M = 0.9M and takes 2 rides per week making ~0.25 M rides per day

Casual users = 20% of 3M = 0.6M and takes 1 ride per month making ~0.02 M rides per day

Rare users = 20% of 3M = 0.6M and takes 1 ride per quarter making ~0.007 M rides per day

Total uber rides per day = Total no of rides by all different types of users

Total uber rides in Delhi NCR per day is around 1.1 M rides

0
0 comments
Similar Questions
Consulting
How to avoid excessive detail when market sizing?
on Apr 24, 2025
Global
5
400+
Top answer by
Daniel
Coach
Ex-McKinsey, Bain & Kearney | 5+ yrs consulting, coaching & interviewing | 95%+ candidate success
12
5 Answers
400+ Views
+2
Consulting
How many primary teachers are there per 28 students
on Jun 06, 2024
Global
6
1.1k
Top answer by
Pedro
Coach
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session
32
6 Answers
1.1k Views
+3
Consulting
I got a take-home case from a company. It is so generic. How should I approach this?
on Sep 28, 2024
Global
6
2.0k
Top answer by
Florian
Coach
1400 5-star reviews across platforms | 600+ offers | Highest-rated case book on Amazon | Uni lecturer in US, Asia, EU
58
6 Answers
2.0k Views
+3
Top Answer by
Emily
Coach
9 years in MBB Southeast Asia & China| 8 years as MBB interviewer | Free intro call
To coach profile
Related Article
Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
View article
Related Product
The Case Cracker Program
5.0
3 reviews
USD 1,395
USD 1,119
More information
Related Case
Expert case by
Ian
Based on Bain 1st Round Case (2023): Last Mile Delivery
5.0
4.1k times solved
Advanced
Interviewer-led
Open case
Similar Questions
Consulting
How to avoid excessive detail when market sizing?
on Apr 24, 2025
12
5
400+
Consulting
How many primary teachers are there per 28 students
on Jun 06, 2024
32
6
1.1k
Consulting
I got a take-home case from a company. It is so generic. How should I approach this?
on Sep 28, 2024
58
6
2.0k
Everything for Your Career
  • Interview Coaching
  • Q&A
  • Interview Partner
  • Mental Math Tool
  • Interview Drills
  • Stress Questions
  • Blog
Everything for Your Career
  • Interview Coaching
  • Q&A
  • Interview Partner
  • Mental Math Tool
  • Interview Drills
  • Stress Questions
  • Blog
Popular in Consulting
  • Case Library
  • Meeting Board
  • Case Partner
  • Case Interview Basics
  • Case Interview
  • Consulting Q&A
Popular in Finance
  • Finance Q&A
  • Interview in Investment Banking
  • Investment Banking Salaries
Popular in Consulting
  • Case Library
  • Meeting Board
  • Case Partner
  • Case Interview Basics
  • Case Interview
  • Consulting Q&A
Popular in Finance
  • Finance Q&A
  • Interview in Investment Banking
  • Investment Banking Salaries
Consulting and Finance Employers
  • RWE Consulting
  • Whiteshield Advisory
  • All Employers »
About PrepLounge
  • For Companies
  • For Universities
  • For Coaches
  • About Us
  • Career
  • FAQ
© 2012 PrepLounge
Our servers are powered by electricity from renewable sources.
  • Cookies & Privacy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Imprint
  • Sitemap
  • Contact
How likely are you to recommend us to a friend or fellow student?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 = Not likely
10 = Very likely
Submit feedback
Thanks for your feedback! Your opinion helps us make PrepLounge even better.
Close Close and keep on prepping
Want to leave already?
After your registration you have free access to:
12 mock interviews with peers
360.000+ peers in our community
36 exercises (incl. structuring drills, mental math, brainteasers and more)
Video tutorials
Video case solutions
Sign up for free
Questions or Feedback?
Select category
  • Select category
  • General Feedback
  • Case Interview Preparation
  • Coaching
  • Technical Problems
  • Other
Your name
Your email address
Cancel