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Anonymous A
on Mar 14, 2024
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Some problem in market sizing

I came up with an answer of 10billion dollars home renovation market per year. But, I think I have done something wrong because numbers is very small. I think assumptions are off. Someone can help please

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Pedro
Coach
on Mar 14, 2024
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

Sorry to tell you, there are plenty of mistakes in there.

  • If you want to segment between large renovation and small renovation, treat each of these as a segment (i.e. estimate separately the total renovation value for each segment). Using your approach, you did a mistake: the % of major vs. minor renovations on the left is 10-90%, but on the right is 1/10 (10%) vs. 1/3 (33%), which is actually 10/43% vs. 33/43%. Basically you are assuming different breakdowns for the same thing.
  • Looking at the right, you are considering new homes… (that 2% growth rate). That is not renovation, so no reason to be here
  • Then on the % of renovations below, you have the 1.1% number. Well, it's a math mistake. 1/10 + 1/3 =10% + 33% = 43%. I don't even understand how you got to 1.1%. But you can see, just from here, that using your assumptions the correct number for this would be 40x what you had. 
  • Still on the last two… if you have 3.1% renovation per year…that means a house being renovated every 30 years (which is inrealistic). You have to make these types of calculations to check your number.

Other than that, the values you have for large and small renovations are low - but the values you use here will depend on the frequency of renovation you chose. 

An alternative approach would be to consider a certain “use period” for the house components and thinking how much % of them is “used per year”. Paint may last 10 years (10% per year). But floor, hardware (e.g. cabinets), appliances, maybe last 20 (5% per year); electrical, plumbing, ceramics… maybe 50 (2% per year). Estimate their cost and apply the % and you get to your target value.

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Anonymous A
on Mar 19, 2024
Hi! Thankyou
Ian
Coach
on Mar 15, 2024
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

  1. growth rate on RHS not needed
  2. Where'd you get major/minor improvement %?
  3. Might be worth splitting by pop by income/wealth
  4. Major/minor improvement numbers are way too low

I actually have a super cheap market sizing video course that you can use to practice your market sizing - definitely consider it to improve!

Market Sizing Analysis: Approaches, Techniques, and Exercises (preplounge.com)

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Cristian
Coach
on Mar 15, 2024
#1 rated McKinsey Coach | top MBB coach

First of all, my neck is sore from having to look horizontally at the image :)

Fully agree with Pedro's approach. 

Aside from this, I do appreciate the structure that you used, in the sense of approaching it like an issue tree. Typically, you either go for an issue tree or a linear set of filters and you made a good choice in this case.

Best,
Cristian

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1 comment
Anonymous
on Mar 19, 2024
Sorry. Actually I tried horizontal
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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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