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Jay
on Feb 25, 2022
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market Sizing (Case interview)

I have been practicing the replacement theory but also wanted to reach out and ask if anyone had any additional tips or guidance on this subject as I prepare?

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Pedro
Coach
on Feb 26, 2022
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

On market sizing, or on the replacement theory? 

The “replacement theory” is just a small tool within market sizing (and honestly I don't find it intuitive at all).

If it is about market sizing here you have a couple of useful links:
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/market-sizing-approach-12396

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-do-you-estimate-the-1-year-annual-sale-of-a-small-corner-coffee-shop-12123

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

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Jay
on Feb 26, 2022
Pedro,

Thank you for your comment. Apologies for not clarifying my question, but I was referring to market sizing overall. As you mentioned, "replacement theory" is a tool within market sizing.

Thank you for the links. Very helpful.
Ian
Coach
on Feb 26, 2022
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi Jay,

By replacement theory do you mean when you think about the lifespan of a product?

Quite simply, you just need to figure out how many years that item lasts, then divide by that to get the annual replacement.

You can do this for cars, appliances, bed, etc. and you can also do it for “human” factors such as for marriages, illnesses, etc.

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Jay
on Feb 26, 2022
Ian, thank you for your response. It was about market sizing overall, as well as using replacement theory within the structure of market sizing.
Moritz
Coach
on Feb 26, 2022
ex-McKinsey EM & Interviewer | 7/8 offer rate for 4+ sessions | High impact sessions + FREE materials & exercises

Hey there,

Don’t overcomplicate things!

First time I hear about this theory - same as some other seasoned ex-consultants it seems.

This alone tells me that you might not want to use it in a case, unless it’s really intuitive and easy to understand and, most importantly, appropriate for the problem at hand.

I recommend focusing your energy on developing great custom approaches yourself through fit for purpose MECE frameworks. If you master this key skill, you’re nearly there.

Let me know if this is something you‘re interested in discussing. Best of luck!

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Clara
Coach
on Mar 01, 2022
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

Happy that you ask!  Given that market sizing cases were the topic of many questions in this Forum, I developped a market sizing case, that you can find for free in PrepL´s library

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-new-startup-launch-baby-strollers-in-the-us-244

Let me know if you have any doubts with it, it contains a detailed explanation and methodology about how to solve this specific example, but you can extrapolate to many other market sizings!

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1 comment
Jay
on Mar 02, 2022
Hi Clara,

Thank you for your feedback. It is greatly appreciated, as I will follow the link that you provided.
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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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