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Anonymous A
on Jun 16, 2025
USA
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Market Sizing

How to market size AI industry?

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Cristian
Coach
on Jun 16, 2025
#1 Rated McKinsey Coach | Top MBB Coach | Verifiable success rates

Hi there!

I'm sure ChatGPT can provide some sample answers, but you might get more out of the Q&A if you suggest an answer and we give you feedback. If you'd like to do that, feel free to repost it.

Best,
Cristian

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Mihir
Coach
on Jun 16, 2025
McKinsey Associate Partner and interviewer | Bulletproof MBB prep

Hey, in order to answer, we’d need much more detail. What part of the AI industry are you trying to size (e.g., revenue from LLM, applications, infrastructure etc.)

If you have a clear sense of the above, I recommend using ChatGPT to help you problem-solve (as Cristian suggested)

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Joel
Coach
11 hrs ago
Buy 1 get 1 free (May-June only) | Kearney | Ex-RB | Involved in recruiting | Passed 10/10 interviews | 250+ interviews

Hi, 

AI is very broad, and it's unlikely you'll be asked to size the entire industry without further clarification. But if you are, here’s how I would approach it:

1. Clarify what you are sizing: AI covers a wide range of technologies: cloud-based AI services, embedded AI in hardware, automation tools, predictive analytics, natural language processing, and more. Try to narrow it down by focusing on a specific use case or segment, so your analysis can be more concrete.

2. Choose your approach: I would go for the demand side approach, as it allows to focus on customers' behaviors and drivers. 

3. Identify and prioritize your customers:  End-users could be individuals, businesses, or government entities. You can focus on businesses and assume they represent a certain percentage of total demand. You can also segment businesses by size (mature vs growth phase). 

4. Identify the main drivers: Drivers can include industry type, digital maturity, tech adoption rate, regulatory factors, etc. Discuss these different drivers with your interviewer and come up with / validate your assumptions.  

5. Run your calculation

One final note, assumption-making is never black or white, the numbers don't really matter as long as they are logical, and you can back them up. Also, this is a tough question, especially if no data is provided from the interviewer, but don't worry, interviewers know that, and they will step in and support if you're going in the right direction.  

I hope this helps, it is a high-level approach because the question itself is broad. 

If you want to master the Market Sizing question and solve any MS question across industries, please check my book "Market Sizing Like a Pro" in the "Resources" section, or feel free to reach out with any question!  

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Hagen
Coach
10 hrs ago
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 9+ years consulting, 9+ years coaching and 8+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

I would be happy to share my thoughts on your question:

  • First of all, can you please provide a proposal that I can review? There is no point in coaches presenting their approaches when it is you who is currently preparing for the interviews and wants to learn how to do it.
  • Moreover, however, please keep in mind that except for Bain in the UK and few smaller consulting firms, most consulting firms have not used standalone market size estimations for a long time. While this does not mean it never happens, this type of case study question is typically not be very meaningful for both the candidate and interviewer, as only a few skills are being tested.

You can find more on this topic here: How to succeed in the final interview round.

If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to best prepare your application files, for your upcoming pre-interview assessments and/or interviews, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.

Best,

Hagen

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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