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Anonymous A
on Oct 16, 2021
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

How to solve / speed up market estimation questions?

I have always solved market sizing questions by listing a straightforward mathematical function, such as “Market size = A*B*C*D”. Until recently, I purchased Crafting Cases online course, and it recommended taking a 5 step approach: (1) Clarify and communicate (2) Structure the problem (3) Choose assumptions (4) Calculate (5) Reality check. 

After adopting this approach, I realized that the time I consumed on market sizing questions increased significantly. Specifically I would like to ask 2 questions:

1. To structure the market sizing analysis, is “issue tree" or “basic mathematical function”  preferable? I feel that issue tree could be a more comprehensive approach, but sometimes it is hard to communicate efficiently as I will need to explain each layers.

2. Should I go through the 5 steps one by one? Again, this will consume a lot of time, and I am not sure whether I should clearly separate step (2), (3), (4) into individual steps, as the communication is lengthy and content might sound overlapping.

Appreciate your thoughts! 

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Pedro
Coach
on Oct 16, 2021
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

Hi there,

Let me start by answering your questions at face value, but further below I'll give you some advice.I

  1. Your perception is correct. Issue tree takes much longer to explain, and usually all that explanation is unnecessary. So you should go for the math function as it is more efficient and easier to explain. The exception is when you are struggling to find the function (then you have to use the issue tree to get it, but in the end try to convert it to function).
  2. As a general rule you should separate them, or at least separate the structure from the assumptions and calculation. The reason is simple: communication is more clear, and it is a more reliable approach (less mistakes). It is common to have a lot of discussion around assumptions. If you mix assumptions with the structuring (particularly when the interviewer is still unsure that you'll get the structure right), then you risk being drawn into discussions and lose track of the function you were trying to build. It is also tougher to receive a hint if you are getting something wrong in the formula…

The real question here is: if you perform the same tasks in a different order, howcome do they take longer?

The answer usually is… overexplain things. When doing everything together you just over explain once. When doing separate, one does it multiple times… 

What one needs to understand is that a good math formula does not need a lot of explanation. Usually the only thing that needs a longer explanation is for e.g. a segmentation (if the formula requires one). Once you have a good formula, it should be quite straightforward to go (almost mechanically) through assumptions, chosing a number, giving one backup reason, and asking for agreement. This should be actually faster than the alternative (unless it is a very simple market sizing exercise).

Hope you review yourself in this comment, but if not, I am happy to further discuss in private.

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Ian
Coach
on Oct 17, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

Honestly, it depends. However, ultimately remember that you are splitting assumptions into areas that help you get more accurate.

Do not create splits for the sake of creating splits!

If you make sure to break down the problem into segments that take you FROM guessing TO estimating, you will solve the market sizing as optimally as possible.

Make sense? It's not about just adding complexity to sound smart.

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Antonello
Coach
on Oct 16, 2021
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Hi!

1) Usually, market sizings can be solved by defining a mathematical formula and estimating each component of the issue tree.

2) All these steps cannot be skipped, but you should improve your time management skills to fit them in 30-35 minutes maximum.

Let me know if you'd like more guidance on market sizing. I've built specific sessions on them.

Good luck,

Anto

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Florian
Coach
on Oct 18, 2021
1400 5-star reviews across platforms | 600+ offers | Highest-rated case book on Amazon | Uni lecturer in US, Asia, EU

Hey there,

 

For market sizing questions, keep it short and simple.

The biggest time saver is not to overengineer the segments, creating a false sense of precision (e.g., creating age distribution buckets).

I suggest the following approach:

 

1. Think about 3-4 variables that influence the outcome variable and their relationship

2a. Ask the interviewer for data on these numbers

2b. If no data is available, assume numbers and justify them

3. Plug the numbers in and calculate

4. Sanity check and interpret in the context of the question

 

No need for an issue tree, no need to overengineer it by creating segments (rather average it out). Most market sizing questions can be answered within 6-8 minutes with good precision.

Cheers,

Florian

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Marco-Alexander
Coach
on Oct 31, 2021
Former BCG | Case author for efellows book | Experience in 6 consultancies (Stern Stewart, Capgemini, KPMG, VW Con., Hor

…

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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