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Anonymous A
on Jun 23, 2022
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

How to estimate the number of daily bank transfers in a day

Hi! 

Can I receive some feedback on this approach?

1. Calculate the number of users in that digital bank

2. Calculate the number of daily active users from the total pool of users

3. Assume the types of bank transfers/transactions they can do 

4. Assume there's a limit on the amount of transfer they make

5. Assume how much transactions users do within a day

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Top answer
Ian
Coach
on Jun 23, 2022
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

You'll learn a lot more from this by trying it out yourself first! Why don't you post your approach here and we can provide commentary?

How to approach market sizing

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

He's a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

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Clara
Coach
on Jun 24, 2022
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

Yes, that sounds good!

There are many ways to think about this. For instance, I would have done: 

  1. Total users
  2. # transaction each one does monthly 
  3. % of those that are done online

Given that market sizing cases were the topic of many questions in this Forum, I developped a market sizing case, that you can find for free in PrepL´s library

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-new-startup-launch-baby-strollers-in-the-us-244

Let me know if you have any doubts with it, it contains a detailed explanation and methodology about how to solve this specific example, but you can extrapolate to many other market sizings!

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Cristian
Coach
on Jun 23, 2022
#1 rated McKinsey Coach | top MBB coach

Hi there,

My colleagues covered your question really well below, but I'd just want to add one point. 

Remember that even for a market sizing question the interview in and of itself is a conversation. So you are not expected to come with a flawless approach end to end where you have all the data, do all the work and then just present the perfect number at the end. 

Rather see it as an opportunity to develop an approach high-level which you then present to the interview and start refining it with them. This is a chance for you to ask for additional data and any other sort of inputs you might need to get closer to the answer. 

Best,

Cristian

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Moritz
Coach
on Jun 23, 2022
ex-McKinsey EM & Interviewer | 7/8 offer rate for 4+ sessions | High impact sessions + FREE materials & exercises

Hi there,

As pointed out by all coaches whenever we get a request like this - share your approach first and learn from all the great feedback you'll get.

That being said, if 10 experts here were to take this question on you'd be getting 10 completely different yet equally valid answers. That's because you haven't framed any boundary conditions so it's up to us to hypothesize as to what they are. This includes things like:

  • Users: Are the bank's services being used by private or business customers?
  • Functionality: What does the service spectrum entail i.e. what could technically be done by customers of this bank?
  • Bank transfer: Does this entail any kind of transaction e.g. purchase of goods at a POS or is it just from one account to another?
  • Day: Are we looking for a yearly average and are we including or excluding weekend days?

The list goes on and on - you get the point.

I suggest you give it a shot and we'll take it from there!

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1 comment
Anonymous A
on Jun 23, 2022
Hi! I updated it
Anonymous B
edited on Jun 23, 2022

First step would have to be an assumption regarding the # of customers the bank has. If it is a purely digital bank, maybe equivalent to a small/mid sized bank and then geographies the bank operates in is going to be a factor towards that number.

Second step could be to segment based on individual customers or businesses and then make an assumption on number of transfers made and received per day for each segment.

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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