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Anonymous A
on Jan 11, 2020
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

How many km of roads are there in spain?

This is a question I got from a consulting firm focused in infrastructure projects. By km of roads it included any kind of road.

What would be your approach to estimating this question?

Thanks!

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Top answer
Vlad
Coach
on Jan 11, 2020
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

I would split Spain into 3 buckets and allocate % of the area:

  1. Urban areas
  2. Rural areas
  3. National parks / uninhabited areas

1. Urban - you take an average size of the block and find out the number of roads between them (e.g. total Urban length from East to West of 1000km, each block is 1 km, thus 1000 roads from E to W. Same with S and N)

2. Rural - you just assume much lower density than in Urban (e.g. 50x lower)

3. National Parks - will be even lower

Best

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Deleted
Coach
on Jan 11, 2020
Very experienced ex-McKinsey consultant with cross-country expertise

Hello there, 

I used in my family to play with my own kid (who is 6) asking him similar questions. His brain looks like is being shaped in a right direction, even though he doesn't know precise answers, it's all about the approach. 

This case or similar to this one is about how you find the route causes or the main parts, which impact the result. What is important when answering this question is how you think. Even if you have no clue on roads density. 

I give you an analogy. How many bulbs one may put on a Christmas tree at max? For answering this question you need to understand: 

* Number of tree branches 

* Average lenght per branch

* Average size or diameter of the bulb

* And then - use your judgement to understand if the tree will be staying still 

In answering your questions, the approach may be similar, although there is more than 1 approach:

1. Top down: 

* Size of Spain (in km)

* Judgemental part of country covered by roads (in cities and outside)

* Multiple one by another

2. Bottom up:

* Number of residents & guests in the country (population)

* Part lives in cities and outside

* Time spent per 1 person in the roads

* Average speed of trip 

* KM

3. Construction based

* Norm of construction of roads per year since 1900 

* Annual growth (linked with: a) car growth, b) infrastructure spending growth or c) productivity growth

* Add some random roads among main hubs and junctions

* KM

4. Evolution-based 

* Imagine that the entire territory of the country consists of roads, then - start taking off the number areas, which belong to cities, historical places, parks, mountains, etc. Because in fact - one can try to go through absolute variety of roads (meaning that if there is no road - it doesn't mean one can't go there). 

5. Car based

* How many cars are in Spain

* How many KM are driven by car

* How often cars go the same/different direction

* What is the density on the road 

* How large part of road had never being driven on (or let's say for the past x years)

* KM

PS. you may find some other x alternatives of answering this question. Pls don't be always simple and straight, show some of the imaginations. Esp in infrastructure projects in Spain! 

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Luca
Coach
on Jan 12, 2020
BCG |NASA | SDA Bocconi & Cattolica partner | GMAT expert 780/800 score | 200+ students coached

Hello,

I would use the approach suggested by Vlad, splitting the country in Urban area, rural areas and national parks/uninhabited areas. 
In addition to this,I would consider also the distance between the big cities in order to consider also the highways that can affect significantly the result.

Best,
Luca

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Clara
Coach
on Jan 13, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

The "academic" approach in this case would be splitting territory in buckets, estimate the km2 per each bucket and estimate the km of roads per bucket. 

However, this can get very tricky and too many assumptions if you don´t know the country well (e.g., I wouldn´t be able to calculate the % of urban areas from other european countries accurately). 

Hence, I would try to make analogies with a country with which you feel comfy, such as your own. You can estimate the km of roads connecting big, medium and small towns, and then make the analogy to Spain. 

Hope it helps!

Cheers, 

Clara

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Antonello
Coach
on Jan 15, 2020
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Hi,
in order to calculate rural areas - in order to not overcomplicate the case - I would simply add a percentage on the total km of city and highway roads.

Best,
Antonello

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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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