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Anonymous A
on Jun 05, 2025
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Help - Market Sizing is always off by a 2-3 multiple

I've been getting feedback that my logic is sound and it all makes sense, but sometimes even my case partners don't understand why my numbers are so off. This also applies to niche industries (e.g. surf boards) where my structure is comprehensive and all good, but despite my making my assumptions sound correct, the answer is always way off

Will this be fine? Im not particularly sure on how to correct this unless I just memorize a bunch of the key drivers from a ton of industries

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Top answer
Mihir
Coach
edited on Jun 05, 2025
McKinsey Associate Partner and interviewer | Bulletproof MBB prep

There are two things to consider here - 1) why is your estimation off, and 2) does this matter? 

Regarding 1): If your structure is fundamentally sound, then you should test the individual 'drivers' of your market sizing estimate one by one to see where you're going wrong.

For example - check some publicly available data to see if your average price for a surfboard is too high. 

If not, check the 'volume' side of the equation - how many surfboards were actually sold that year vs. your estimate? If your estimate is too high, check the drivers of volume you have identified one by one to see which factor you're overestimating. 

If you are systematically overestimating a certain variable (e.g., always pricing things too highly) it might just be a case of toning this down in your market sizings.

Regarding 2): Interviewers are not expecting you to exactly size the market, especially if it's something niche that you're unlikely to have covered. They are, however, expecting that your sizing logic is correct, the order of magnitude is correct, and that you 'sense check' your final answer to see that it makes sense (e.g., what % of the total population would be buying a surfboard every year according to your calculation, and would that make sense at all?). Being off by a factor of 2 is not ideal, but it may not be a dealbreaker - being off by a factor of 10 would be a dealbreaker.

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Benjamin
Coach
on Jun 05, 2025
Ex-BCG Principal | 8+ years consulting experience in SEA | BCG top interviewer & top performer

If the logic is sound (i.e. the reasoning to get to the answer), then the issue is with the assumptions itself (i.e. what numbers you are putting down when you are filling up your structure).

Normally this is a business judgment/common sense issue. One way you can reverse engineer this is to either check with the model answer (which sometimes isnt that great tbh) or check with reality - do a google search and find out what the real number is.

FYI if the logic is -really- sound, it should be pretty clear where the weird number is coming from.. 

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Hagen
Coach
edited on Jun 05, 2025
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

I would be happy to share my thoughts on your question:

  • First of all, being off by a factor of two to three times is not necessarily fine. Assuming your logic is sound based on peer feedback, the issue must lie in how you size individual figures. Have you compared your figures to real-life figures to determine the cause of the discrepancy?
  • Moreover, however, please keep in mind that except for Bain in the UK and few smaller consulting firms, most consulting firms have not used standalone market size estimations for a long time. While this does not mean it never happens, this type of case study question is typically not be very meaningful for both the candidate and interviewer, as only a few skills are being tested.

You can find more on this topic here: How to succeed in the final interview round.

If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to best prepare for your upcoming pre-interview assessments and/or interviews, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.

Best,

Hagen

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Cristian
Coach
on Jun 05, 2025
#1 rated McKinsey Coach | top MBB coach

If the number is off, that's not a problem in and of itself. 

With market sizing, what's being tested is not whether the number if accurate, but how you structure and approach the process, and how you align the inputs and assumptions with the interviewer / client. 

That said, it is strange that you're having this issue consistently and that might point to some root cause that you have not yet identified. You should consider getting an expert perspective on this to diagnose whether something strange is going on. 

Best,
Cristian

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Mariana
Coach
on Jun 05, 2025
Free CV evaluation | xMckinsey | 1.5h session | +200 sessions | Free 20-min introductory call

Hi there,

It seems the problem is in the numbers you have picked to fill the variables. Thats a better problem to have than to having a hard time with the structure :)

Ideally, you should always use proxies or known numbers to (1) convey a rational behind the figures you picked and (2) make sure they are close to the reality. 
Proxies: to give you an example, if the case is about dog food market size, you can actually verify how much you eat (in kg per day, for instance) and transfer the ratio food/weight to see how much a dog would eat considering you both are mammals - I know it sounds weird, but it’s better than a number out of the blue.

For known numbers: It is actually a good idea to memorize some common numbers such as the population of the country you are, the social pyramid, the GDP, the average salary, etc. some industries figures are also relevant to know, such as market size and key metrics. You will be able to use this data directly to the case or use it as a benchmark. 

Good luck!

Best,

Mari

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Mattijs
Coach
on Jun 05, 2025
Free 15m intro call | First session -50% | Bain| Hiring team | 250+ successful candidates

Hi,

The core goal of a market sizing questions during the interview is the approach/structure that you can back-up with clear reasons/datapoints. If your end result is off, try to find out which parameter is the driver for that. 

Note that even if your market sizing answer would be 100%, without a solid approach, you will never pass the interview.

Let me know if you want to practice some market sizing questions together so I can provide feedback.

Mattijs

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Kacper
Coach
18 hrs ago
Engagement Manager | Mock interview | Problem Structuring | MECEness | Fit Q&A | Winning CV | +20 min FREE

Hi there 👋

I got a candidate that have the same problem - logic is sound and MECE (I agree with it) but after 2-3 case I noticed a patter of "over estimation". This is what we have identified and worked on - hope this will be helpful for you too:

1) Do not overcomplicate: "Less is more" so if not necessary, try not to do 10 different population buckets multiplying by 4 types of potential proce segments... Be smart and able to justify your choices of selecting only 3 main buckets - that is all consulting is about - max of output in a give time unit

2) Make sense checks along the way: it is always better to make sure that your assumptions are correct along the way (interviewer will notice that too - trust me). Meaning? Instead of trying to say this and that makes sense, try to triangulate it / compare to something and than at the end you will have a better ballpark value

3) Trust the process: I believe that this is all a part of your "consulting journey" - it is nothing wrong with you, you need just a little bit more guidance and perhaps practice (I remember my case where regardless of knowing I am progressing good with the case I did silly mistakes impacting overall performance). It goes with practice and I believe it is your case too!

Best of luck 😉

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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