Top-down approach: This method involves starting with individual units or smaller segments and gradually building up to the total market size. This approach is often used when estimating unit sales or market shares, such as the number of smartphones sold worldwide.
The candidate should not use a top-down approach for this particular market sizing. Trying to take a top-down (population, area, etc.) approach would be guessing and would not lead to an accurate answer.
Common Pitfalls
Some common pitfalls in this market sizing include:
Using a top-down approach
Oversegmenting the problem - breaking down small/medium/large coffees, breaking down all food items, breaking down every hour of operation, etc.
Looking at a set period of time at the store (# of people in the store) instead of looking at flow
Sense Check of Solution
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The candidate should sense-check their answer by annualizing the number. If the answer is between half a million and 1.5 million, they have likely estimated correctly (highly dependent on location and coffee shop of choice)
Video Solution
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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here.
Market Sizing WITH SOLUTION - Coffee Shop Revenue
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