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Anonymous A
on Aug 17, 2020
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

When would you use a top-down approach to market sizing?

I'm struggling to understand why you would ever want to use a top-down approach for market sizing. My understanding is that top-down means starting form a big pool and taking some percentage of that to equal the market size e.g. passengers at Heathrow = total passengers at UK airports* percentage market share of Heathrow (some semi-arbitrary number...). Why would this ever be more accurate than bottom-up e.g. Heathrow runways * runway utilization * plane takeoff/hour/runway * max capacity/plane (domestic/international) * plane utilisation (peak/non peak) * #runways *#working hours/day * #days/year? 

Can someone please give a different example of a market sizing from the side of top down and bottom-up, where top-down makes some sense? 

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Top answer
Sidi
Coach
on Aug 17, 2020
McKinsey Senior EM & BCG Consultant | Interviewer at McK & BCG for 7 years | Coached 400+ candidates secure MBB offers

Hi!

Top-down market sizing is usually much easier to do and can give you a ballpark number within minutes (or even seconds). But it is usually far less accurate than a bottom-up approach. In a consulting context it usually only makes sense in two cases:

  • Either you lack the information/data for a bottom-up approach, or the influencing factors are too granular and complex to robustly combine them in a reasonable time frame
  • Or you use the top-down approach as a validation to your bottom up result (this is called triangulation)

Cheers, Sidi

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Ian
Coach
edited on Aug 26, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

This is such a good question, and experts seem to always shy away from the answer here!

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

Coincidentally, I just answered a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

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Anonymous A
on Aug 17, 2020
Just to confirm, your answer in that post is top-down, right? You've said bottom-up twice in the post above :)
Allen
Coach
on Aug 17, 2020
Ex-McK Experienced Hire and EM - I show you how to perform at your best

Here's my simple approach for this quesiton:

Default to top-down since it's easier most of the time. 

Bottom up is useful when you have a very specific constraint, like I can only do 1 per day.

It's that simple.

One more point: if you choose an approach, and believe you made a mistake, just admit it and use the other one.  As an interviewer, if I see someone self-correct, I really like that.  Just like in real life, the key is to know when you've made a mistake and fix it.

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Deleted user
on Aug 18, 2020

Dear A,

The truth is that actually you can use both approaches to structuring the market-sizing case - the top-down and the bottom-up approach. However in the case you simply should outline that there are 2 ways of thinking, 2 or even multiple ways of thinking about this market sizing case and you would like to use the following approach. So just discuss this with an interviewer and crack the case. 

Then, accordingly afetr you have agreed on the logic. Usually the interviewer will guide you, if he/she doesn't like your approach, then the interviewer would ask you to elaborate a different approach. So you can, for the case of Heathrow you can use also your bottom-line approach. Simply get agreed on it with your interviewer and then go for it. 

Hope it heps,

Wish you best of luck,

If you have any questions,just drop me a message. 

Best,

André

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Robert
Coach
on Aug 19, 2020
McKinsey offers w/o final round interviews - 100% risk-free - 10+ years MBB coaching experience - Multiple book author

Hi Anonymous,

In reality it depends which data you have. If you can't get good data on many variables or even proxies in a bottom-up calculation, I would not say at all that top-down is less accurate.

Additionally, it often makes sense to use both approaches simultaneously as kind of health-check and see where the numbers get you. If both lead to the same ballpark of results, good - if not, than you need to go back and see what causes it.

Hope that helps - if so, please be so kind to give it a thumbs-up with the green upvote button below!

Robert

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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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