Size of Wine Market in the UK

Market sizing UK
Edited on Jul 06, 2021
4 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Jul 05, 2021

Not sure on the last steps here. Can someone help please?

  1. UK Population - ask for UK Population 
  2. 65 million - life expectancy 81/82 
  3. Let’s assume there are the same number of 1 year olds than 82 year olds.That would mean there’s approximately 800,000 people per age number 
  4. 800,000* 18 = 14.4 million. Population below the drinking age 
  5. 50.6 million people left - for clarity make it 50 million - older will have more purchasing power
  6. Segment by population - 3 different groups… 18-34 (12.5 million), 34-50 (12.5 million), 50+ (25 million)
  7. Ask about split between out-of-home and in-home. Out-of-home has 2 to 3 times markup 

I’m a little confused on how to continue… I would ask the interviewer for more information but would it be correct to assume that older people consume more expensive wines? 

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Clara
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updated an answer on Jul 06, 2021
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!Y

Overall it's good. 

I don't agree with other comments here saying that you must not ask for hte population in the UK. Unless this is a interview in the London office, it's totally okay to ask (or give an estimation and ask whether that is directionally good). None expects you to know all the populations in the top countries in the world!

You can see a case with a detail market sizing here, in case it helps > https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-new-startup-launch-baby-strollers-in-the-us-244

Hope it helps! Cheers, 

Clara

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Allen
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replied on Jul 05, 2021
Ex-McK Experienced hire and EM - I specialize in helping experienced hires perform

I agree with where you are going. 

If you segment by age, there must be a reason for that, and I agree that it makes sense that older people consume more expensive wine. Perhaps create three segments (value, mid-range, and premium).  So: 

  • Perhaps your middle segment consumes more wine (glasses per week) than the other segments and more of the mid-range segment
  • Perhaps your older segment consumes the same amount of wine as the younger segment, but the older segment consumes more premium wines
  • The younger segment consumes more value brands

But the question is likely from the perspective of the wine producer and I don't think the fact that it costs you or me more to purchase in a restaurant is relevant.

Hope this helps!

Allen

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Ian
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replied on Jul 06, 2021
BCG | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

My #1 issue with your steps is the amount of asking you're doing. Please please do not ask for the UK population or the split out and in-home. This isn't how market sizing works! The entire time you should be determining your own numbers!

In terms of your breakdown itself, it's good, but I would probably add income into the equation. Poorer folks will not be drinking wine. Furthermore, you'll need to break down wine consumption not just by # of bottles but price per bottle - this won't really work if you're just doing age breakdowns.

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Asim
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replied on Jul 05, 2021
Strategy& Engagement Manager | Ex-Investment Banker | Financial Services expert

Agree with the other coach that you are going the right direction and their suggestion

I would clarify up front with the interview how they would like the size - is it by value (£m sold in the retail market) or is it by value (no. of wine bottles consumed per year)

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Clara gave the best answer

Clara

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McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut
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