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Marketing Sizing - How many pizza are sold in Brazil?

Anonymous A asked on Oct 23, 2018

Hey guys, i have some questions about marketing sizing. I saw this marketing sizing question and wanna help to solve them.

In Brazil we have 200 million habitants. So we can separate this number in classes (in percent), like:

  • Age 1 to 15 - 25%
  • Age 15 to 50 - 60%
  • Age 50 to forward - 15%

We know that peoples with age in (1 to 15) don't will buy any pizzas, and peoples with (50 to forward) will buy less pizzas then (15 to 50).

So 60% of 200 millions = 120 millions. Supose that in one house live 3 peoples, then we have: 120/3 = 40 millions houses. And 20% of then eat one pizza per week, then we have: 40*0.2= 8 millions pizzas solds per week to this families, then we have 8*4 = 32 millions of pizzas sold per month. So, 32*12 = 384 millions of pizzas solds in a year.

I don't know if the Age 50 to forward will change significantly this number.

Is that a good line of thought?

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updated his answer on Oct 23, 2018
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I think there are 2 issues in your approach -

1. You started first with age group and then shifted to households

Households will have people less than 15 and more than 50 years of age. In your approach, it looks like 40 Millions households have only young population and rest lives in other household which you are not counting.

2. There is a difference between who buys the pizza and who eats the pizza. There is a big portion of population (less than 15 years) which does not buy pizza themselves but probably their parents buy it for them

A better way to approach is to find the total consumption - you can do this by age or by household but stick to one. I would have multiple filters -

1. Age groups

2. People who want to eat pizza (Interested population)

3. People who have the capacity to buy and eat pizza (Income levels)

4. People who will actually buy pizza (combine interest and income level)

5. Put some cyclic factor for weekdays and weekends to make it more interesting.