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# Marketing Sizing - How many pizza are sold in Brazil?

case guesstimation Guesstimate marketing
New answer on Sep 12, 2019
5.6 k Views

Hey guys, i have some questions about marketing sizing. I saw this marketing sizing question and wanna help to solve them.

In Brazil we have 200 million habitants. So we can separate this number in classes (in percent), like:

• Age 1 to 15 - 25%
• Age 15 to 50 - 60%
• Age 50 to forward - 15%

We know that peoples with age in (1 to 15) don't will buy any pizzas, and peoples with (50 to forward) will buy less pizzas then (15 to 50).

So 60% of 200 millions = 120 millions. Supose that in one house live 3 peoples, then we have: 120/3 = 40 millions houses. And 20% of then eat one pizza per week, then we have: 40*0.2= 8 millions pizzas solds per week to this families, then we have 8*4 = 32 millions of pizzas sold per month. So, 32*12 = 384 millions of pizzas solds in a year.

I don't know if the Age 50 to forward will change significantly this number.

Is that a good line of thought?

• Date ascending
• Date descending

I think there are 2 issues in your approach -

1. You started first with age group and then shifted to households

Households will have people less than 15 and more than 50 years of age. In your approach, it looks like 40 Millions households have only young population and rest lives in other household which you are not counting.

2. There is a difference between who buys the pizza and who eats the pizza. There is a big portion of population (less than 15 years) which does not buy pizza themselves but probably their parents buy it for them

A better way to approach is to find the total consumption - you can do this by age or by household but stick to one. I would have multiple filters -

1. Age groups

2. People who want to eat pizza (Interested population)

3. People who have the capacity to buy and eat pizza (Income levels)

4. People who will actually buy pizza (combine interest and income level)

5. Put some cyclic factor for weekdays and weekends to make it more interesting.

Regards,
Deep

(edited)

Hello, I have calcuated the number of pizzas sold each day in Brazil. Sharing my approach here, feedback will be appreciated:

Total Population of Brazil: 300 million people

Pizza has been considered to be a luxury because Brazil is a developing country.

Dividing the population into the number of people who can afford eating a pizza and the number of people who cannot afford eating a pizza. Assuming that 45% of the population cannot afford a pizza and 55% of the population can afford a pizza.

The percentage of the population who cannot afford a pizza has been taken high because Brazil has high level of unemployment.

The number has are:

People who can afford a pizza: 55% of 300 million: 165 million people

People who cannot afford a pizza: 45% of 300 million: 135 million people

Further breaking down the population into people who live in cities and people who do not live in cities. This has been done because people in cities tend to have a higher tendency of eating unhealthy food as compared to people who do not live in urban areas.

Dividing the population who can afford to buy a pizza as, 40% who live in cities, and 60% who do not live in cities.

People who can afford to buy a pizza and live in cities: 40% of 165 million people: 66 million people

People who can afford to buy a pizza and do not live in cities: 60% of 165 million people: 99 million people

Further, breaking down the population classification age-wise:

Set A: For, 66 million people (people who live in cities and afford to buy a pizza):

Group 1. Ages groups 0-18, and 55+: 40% of 66 million people: 26.4 million people

Group 2: Age group 18-55: 70% of the population: 39.6 million people

In the age group 18-55, there will be people who work and who do not work, thus:

Group 3: 40% of 26.4 million people do not work: 10.56 million people

Group 4: 60% of 26.4 million people who work: 15.84 million people

Set B: Again for 99 million people (people who do not live in cities and afford to buy a pizza):

Group 1: Age groups 0-18 and 55+: 40% of 99 million people: 39.6 million people

Group 2: Age group 18-55: 60% of 99 million people: 59.4 million people

In the age group 18-55, there will be people who work and who do not work, thus:

Group 3: 40% of 59.4 million people who not work: 23.76 million people

Group 4: 60% of 59.4 million people who work: 35.64 million people

Now, for the number of pizzas to be consumed under Set A:

People under Groups 1, 2, and 4 will eat once in a month, i.e. 81.84 million pizzas in a month.

People under Group 3 will eat twice in a month: 21.12 million pizza in a month,

Total pizza under Set A: 102.96 pizzas, daily: 102.96/30: 3.432 million pizzas

(Assumption: The amount of junk food consumed in non urban areas is almost half of urban areas)

Now, for the number of pizzas to be consumed under Set B:

People under Groups 1, 2, and 4 will eat half a pizza a month: i.e. 67.32 million pizzas a month

People under Group 3 will eat one pizza a month: 23.76 million pizzas a month

Total being: 91.08 million pizzas a month, daily: 91.08/30: 3.036 million pizzas a month

Number of pizzas consumed daily in Brazil: 6.468 million pizzas a day