Market Sizing: Supply Teachers in the UK

Market sizing
New answer on Dec 31, 2021
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Anonymous A asked on Jul 30, 2019

How would I best structure a market sizing question estimating the market for supply teachers in the UK?

Thanks

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Anonymous B replied on Jul 31, 2019

An overall strategy can be: Total number of educational institutions in the UK--> Schools/Coaching centers--> Government/Private--> Average number of teachers per school--> Average Number of government employed/non supply teachers (-Avg # government teachers retiring every year)--> Avg. number of supply teachers---> mutiply by total number of schools/coaching centres---> total market size.

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Anonymous C on Jul 31, 2019

Can you break this down? I'm not sure this makes sense?

Anonymous B on Jul 31, 2019

Okay. So Supply teachers means teachers who are employed at educational institutions but are not protected by perks and salaries meant by the government. So first we would like to understand the number of schools or educational institutions (both public and private) in the country which I think is available data. Now there are additional educational institutions (coaching centres) which gives online coaching/teaching etc and are not affilated to any educational institution. Though relatively small, this number has to be taken into account. Once we have this, we can ask for ratio of teacher/students in schools in each bucket as mentioned above (excluding online). Then based on total population of the UK (known data) and demographics of school going population, we can estimate the total number of students and what should be the required number of teachers. Now, we will look into the positive factors and negative factors. Positive factor will be total recruitment of teachers in the UK per year by government. Negative factor will be total number of teachers retiring every year+teachers on leave due to personal reasons+teachers terminated due to some cause. This will give an idea about the net number of teachers/year in UK educational system and substracting it from the required number will give the market size available for supply teachers. Again, I did not calculate online teaching for sake of simplicity but can be added as opportunity bucket as well. One critical factor might be the number of people who serve as both government teacher and private tutions. So, the total market size might be an overestimation by hundred or so. Please let me know if you have questions specifically. I would also apppreciate if you can poke holes in my strategy and provide feedback.

Ian
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replied on Dec 31, 2021
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Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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