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Market Sizing Question: Number of Swimming pool in the UK and Hospital Revenue in London

guess-estimates market estimation Market sizing
New answer on Jan 08, 2021
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Guys I am struggling to find a structure to the following market estimation questions. I went so far as factoring from the population but I have no idea how to get around it for the next step.

Thank you in advance for the help!

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Hey there

For swimming pools

Total Pools = # Private Pools + # Public Pools

# Private Pools = No. Households who can afford a pool x % Live in A House x % With Pools

# Public Pools = Total Population without Pools x Assumption of How Many People to a Public Pool (perhaps 1:10,000?)

Hospital Revenue

Revenue = Population of London by age group x % likelihood of getting sick per year x Average spend per incidence of being sick x % who choose to go to hospital

E.g. Breakout population by

1) Elderly: 60+

2) Adult and fit: 30-60

3) Youthful: <30

E.g, Elderly = 2m population (8m * 25%) x 30% chance of being sick per year x \$1000 spend per incidence of being sick x %80 likelihood of going to hospital (as likely more serious illness)

Repeat for each age bracket and sum up

Hope that is helpful!

(edited)

Number of swimming pools in the UK

I would calculate with two categories: private pools and public pools.

Private pools

Population of the UK: 60 million

# of households: 20 million (assuming that an average household consists of 3 people)

Categorizing the households based on their income:

• very rich (5%): 1,000,000 households
• rich (10%): 2,000,000 households
• average (50%): 10,000,000 households
• poor (25%): 5,000,000 households
• very poor (10%): 2,000,000 households

Determining the average # of swimming pools in each category:

• very rich: 1,5 swimming pools / household (assuming that there are some households, which have indoor and outdoor swimming pools)
• rich: 0,8 swimming pools / household
• average: 0,4 swimming pools / household
• poor and very poor: no swimming pools

Consequently:

• very rich UK households: 1,500,000 swimming pools in total
• rich UK households: 1,600,000 swimming pools in total
• average UK households: 4,000,000 swimming pools in total

TOTAL number of private swimming pools in the UK: 1,500,000 + 1,600,000 + 400,000 = 7,100,000

Public pools

Population of the UK: 60 million

Ratio of people, who regularly go to swim: 40%

# of swimming pool visitors: 24 million

• Capacity of an average swimming pool: 8 lines
• Average opening hours: 10 hours / day
• Utility of an average swimming pool: 75%

TOTAL number of public swimming pools in the UK: 24,000,000 / 8 / 10 / 0.75 = 400,000

TOTAL number of swimming pools in the UK: 7,100,000 + 400,000 = 7,500,000

(edited)

Hi Rehan, for hospital revenue- there are a lot of healthcare costs that are not part of hospitals, so it would be too oversimplified to divide healthcare revenue by hospitals.

I would take a bottom-up approach for this (i.e. revenue on average for one hospital and then estimate the amount of total hospitals and multiple the two)

so your framework requires two parts

1.) A revenue estimation

2.) A market sizing of hospitals

Hi Josh, I am interested in the way you would estimate the revenue of a hospital in London. Should we just use avg nb of patients * price? It doesnt seem comprehesive enough and I am not sure if its MECE. Moreover I think there'll be a lot of assumptions down the line with this method.

(edited)

Hi Gilbert- I'm not familiar with the abbreviation "nb". Can you clarify that for me?

# of pools -

You can start with # of properties

types of properties

pools in each kind of property, then add

Revenue -

total revenue in the healthcare industry

share of cities

share of hospitals

divide by # of hospitals