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Market sizing: # of tennis courts in a country and market size for tennis balls

Hello,

I was wondering how could one approach these market sizing questions regarding the number of tennis courts in a certain country or estimating the market size for tennis balls per year?

I tried calculating the market size for tennis balls by first estimating the hours played (based on % of ppl who play tennis and then by segmenting these to 3 segments based on frequency, finally making an assumption that x% of games are single games and 1-x% doubles).

Now that I have number of hours played per year, I divide this sum by the average playtime of each ball. Does this sound reasonable?

All the tips how I can improve my thought process would he helpful!

Hello,

I was wondering how could one approach these market sizing questions regarding the number of tennis courts in a certain country or estimating the market size for tennis balls per year?

I tried calculating the market size for tennis balls by first estimating the hours played (based on % of ppl who play tennis and then by segmenting these to 3 segments based on frequency, finally making an assumption that x% of games are single games and 1-x% doubles).

Now that I have number of hours played per year, I divide this sum by the average playtime of each ball. Does this sound reasonable?

All the tips how I can improve my thought process would he helpful!

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So, you've taken a bottom-up approach here.

I'd be curious to see what your top-down approach looks like.

Something tells me you'll be happier with your top-down approach....i.e. you'll have to make far fewer assumptions and you'll feel more comfortable w/ your breakdown and final number

So, you've taken a bottom-up approach here.

I'd be curious to see what your top-down approach looks like.

Something tells me you'll be happier with your top-down approach....i.e. you'll have to make far fewer assumptions and you'll feel more comfortable w/ your breakdown and final number

First I divide the population into four age groups under assumption that ages are evenly distributed and life expectancy is 80 yrs. Next, I assume how many % play tennis within each tennis group, finally arriving at "total addressable market". Next I segment these people into 3 segments: rare players, occasional players and frequent players. Based on this (and assuming that avg. # of players in the court is 3) I calculate how many games is played annually. Assuming one game last 1 hour, number of games played annually and hours played are the same. Next step involves making assumption regarding how many hours one court is available per year. Now, dividing total hours played by availability of a court, I arrive at number of courts needed to satisfy total hours played. Final assumption would be that x% of the games (e.g. 50%) are actually played on the same court, splitting this figure in half. — Anonymous A on Oct 17, 2020

How top-down approach would look like? I might be wrong but I think this bottom-down approach shows better how I approach the problem rather than arrive more easily at some figure which might be more precise.. — Anonymous on Oct 17, 2020 (edited)

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