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Anonymous A
on Feb 28, 2020
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market sizing: number of customers to an H&M store / day

Hi,

I tried to estimate: “how many visitors an H&M store has per day” but had some difficulties with setting the boundaries, which I need some input on. I’m aware that several factors impact the number of visitors, such as weather, regular days versus weekends, seasonality related variations and that the number of visitors on a day depends and varies due to the time (peak hours versus non-peak hours) etc. What of these aspects, and potentially other, are reasonable to include?

However, my major issue concerned the fact that H&M is a global company, and I therefore assume the number of visitors to vary significantly between countries and cities. Should I use my own country’s market (Sweden), and accordingly a store in Stockholm as a proxy, or what market(s) could be used to represent the visitors in an appropriate way?

If anyone has a solution on this, I would be grateful! 

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Luca
Coach
on Feb 28, 2020
BCG |NASA | SDA Bocconi & Cattolica partner | GMAT expert 780/800 score | 200+ students coached

Hello,

All of your points make sense and those are all questions that you can ask your interviewer at the beginning of the case. Before starting your case, you have to clarify all the boundaries and to agree on some assumptions that you can do (for example, since you want to know an "average" customers/day it is reasonable to assume a sunny day in a spring month).

Best,
Luca

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Coach
on Feb 28, 2020
Ex-Bain & Company | Everyone can land a job at consulting

Hi,

This is a very good question, as often times Market sizing / Estimation questions are stated as simply as that one: "How many visitors an H&M store has per day"

It's good practice in those situations to try to define the scope very well, i.e.:

1. Ask details about the store (Large/Small, Suburbs/Downtown, Street/Mall, country, season, etc) to show that you know that the number of visitors would depend on those factors.

2. Usually, after that, the interviewer will give you a specific set for the case, for example, "consider a regular downtown store in Stockholm on a regular day"

3. If something is still open, just keep it simple and don't make things harder for yourself =]

Hope it helps

Best

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Clara
Coach
on Feb 29, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

It´s a quite unique prompt, since it´s not in all H&M shops but in one in particular. Hence, it´s much easier than the normal case, in which you would later need to estimate the total number of stores. 

In this case, I would use my personal experience in a shop, calculating a threshold for peak hours and % over that for the rest of the hours. 

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

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Vlad
Coach
on Feb 28, 2020
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

Since the question says customers in store / day, you should take one store and use your personal experience (# of people at the counter + peak off peak time assumptions) to estimate

Best

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Antonello
Coach
on Feb 29, 2020
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Hi,
I would consider the bootle-neck of the store (i.e. the line at the cashier) to estimate the number of customers in peak hours on an average day. Then take a percentage to calculate the non-peak hours.

Best,
Antonello

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Ian
Coach
on Dec 31, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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