I am trying to understand Market Sizing.
If I look at the problem at hand and try to follow similar logic presented in The Placement Concept, my estimation is not even close to reality.
Here is what I have been trying to do:
- Number of people per household (4 people)
- Population (33 Million)
- Number of households (8.25 Million)
- Cars per household (avg 2 Cars)
- The average lifetime of a car is 10 years
The number I am ending up with is around 1.65 Million cars sold per year. This is too high when compared with the real number.
Is there a better way to approach the placement concept?
What am I doing wrong?