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Market size: Alternative approach

Children vaccine
New answer on Dec 26, 2019
3 Answers
2.3 k Views
Anonymous A asked on Dec 26, 2019

I took another approch to extimate my market size

Increasing population countries:

system equations : x+y =300 mil ; x= y+0.5 with x = 4 classes of 1.5 and y= 4 classes od 1. It comes up to 45 mil in each of the classes ( 0-9...) and 30 mil in each of the classes ( 40-49...) 15 years are requited: 1-2,2-3,3-4,4-5,5-6,6-7,7-9,8-9,9-10,10-11,11-12,12-13,13-14,14-15,15-16,16-17 (it is not 17but 16+364 days).

5milion per age from 0to 39 comes up to 5x15(age classes) = 75mil

In declining population: 5 classes with 1y base = 15 mil in each class

15 classes x 1.6 mil in every age group = 25 mil.

It is more intuitive like this in my opinion.

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Antonello
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Dec 26, 2019
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Definitely! I like it

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Luca
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Content Creator
replied on Dec 26, 2019
BCG |NASA | SDA Bocconi & Cattolica partner | GMAT expert 780/800 score | 200+ students coached

I don't get the inital system of equations: shouldn't be x=1.5y?

Best,
Luca

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Clara
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Dec 26, 2019
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello,

But what´s de advantage of this solution vs. the proposed one?

Cheers!

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