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Anonymous A
on May 17, 2022
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market Growth Rate CAGR questions but can't apply rule of 72

Hello all,

How would you solve the following in 1 min:

The market size is $50B and is expected to grow by 30% per year for the next 5 years? 

I got this question in a case interview and ended up doing the real math rather than using Rule of 72, which I thought wasn't applicable here, but I maybe wrong. My calculation took almost 2-3 mins.

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Top answer
Ian
Coach
on May 18, 2022
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

72 / 30 = 2.5

That means it doubles every 2.5 years.

As it turns out, the case question really conveniently asks you for the 5 year period…how convenient! (Sarcasm…it's planned!)

So, your investment will double twice.

The answer is $200B

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Clara
Coach
on May 20, 2022
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

The rule still applies! You need to see that 2.5 times 30 is approx. 72 (75, but we need to train the eye to see this kind of “almost” in the math, since they are the trick)

 

Cheers, 

Clara

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Related Article
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is an essential metric for consultants, especially when comparing long-term growth scenarios. It represents the average annual rate at which a value (such as a business’s revenue or an investment’s value) grows over a certain period. For consultants, understanding and utilizing CAGR is crucial when projecting future business performance or comparing investments. Why CAGR is Important for ConsultantsConsultants often work with long-term growth strategies, typically spanning over several years (e.g., five years). These strategies are based on a company’s goals and the measures implemented to achieve them. Since yearly growth rates can fluctuate due to one-off events or external factors, simply comparing year-on-year (YoY) growth rates does not give an accurate picture. The CAGR helps smooth out these fluctuations by assuming a steady growth rate over the entire period.For example, a company may experience significant growth in some years and stagnation or decline in others. By using the CAGR, consultants can determine the average annual growth rate over the entire period, providing a clearer view of a company’s overall performance. CAGR in Case InterviewsWhile it’s unlikely that you’ll be asked to calculate the CAGR during a case interview, understanding its meaning, calculation, and application is essential. Many case studies presented in interviews involve analyzing business performance over time. Knowing when and how to apply the CAGR will help you navigate these scenarios effectively. Case interviews often involve comparing growth rates or forecasting future revenue – both situations where CAGR becomes highly relevant.💡 Check out our Case Library and try to use the CAGR in a real case study.
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