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How to solve / speed up market estimation questions?

Market sizing
New answer on Oct 31, 2021
5 Answers
917 Views
Anonymous A asked on Oct 16, 2021

I have always solved market sizing questions by listing a straightforward mathematical function, such as “Market size = A*B*C*D”. Until recently, I purchased Crafting Cases online course, and it recommended taking a 5 step approach: (1) Clarify and communicate (2) Structure the problem (3) Choose assumptions (4) Calculate (5) Reality check. 

After adopting this approach, I realized that the time I consumed on market sizing questions increased significantly. Specifically I would like to ask 2 questions:

1. To structure the market sizing analysis, is “issue tree" or “basic mathematical function”  preferable? I feel that issue tree could be a more comprehensive approach, but sometimes it is hard to communicate efficiently as I will need to explain each layers.

2. Should I go through the 5 steps one by one? Again, this will consume a lot of time, and I am not sure whether I should clearly separate step (2), (3), (4) into individual steps, as the communication is lengthy and content might sound overlapping.

Appreciate your thoughts! 

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Best answer
Pedro
Expert
replied on Oct 16, 2021
30% off in April 2024 | Bain | EY-Parthenon | Roland Berger | Market Sizing | DARDEN MBA

Hi there,

Let me start by answering your questions at face value, but further below I'll give you some advice.I

  1. Your perception is correct. Issue tree takes much longer to explain, and usually all that explanation is unnecessary. So you should go for the math function as it is more efficient and easier to explain. The exception is when you are struggling to find the function (then you have to use the issue tree to get it, but in the end try to convert it to function).
  2. As a general rule you should separate them, or at least separate the structure from the assumptions and calculation. The reason is simple: communication is more clear, and it is a more reliable approach (less mistakes). It is common to have a lot of discussion around assumptions. If you mix assumptions with the structuring (particularly when the interviewer is still unsure that you'll get the structure right), then you risk being drawn into discussions and lose track of the function you were trying to build. It is also tougher to receive a hint if you are getting something wrong in the formula…

The real question here is: if you perform the same tasks in a different order, howcome do they take longer?

The answer usually is… overexplain things. When doing everything together you just over explain once. When doing separate, one does it multiple times… 

What one needs to understand is that a good math formula does not need a lot of explanation. Usually the only thing that needs a longer explanation is for e.g. a segmentation (if the formula requires one). Once you have a good formula, it should be quite straightforward to go (almost mechanically) through assumptions, chosing a number, giving one backup reason, and asking for agreement. This should be actually faster than the alternative (unless it is a very simple market sizing exercise).

Hope you review yourself in this comment, but if not, I am happy to further discuss in private.

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Ian
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Oct 17, 2021
#1 BCG coach | MBB | Tier 2 | Digital, Tech, Platinion | 100% personal success rate (8/8) | 95% candidate success rate

Hi there,

Honestly, it depends. However, ultimately remember that you are splitting assumptions into areas that help you get more accurate.

Do not create splits for the sake of creating splits!

If you make sure to break down the problem into segments that take you FROM guessing TO estimating, you will solve the market sizing as optimally as possible.

Make sense? It's not about just adding complexity to sound smart.

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Antonello
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Oct 16, 2021
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Hi!

1) Usually, market sizings can be solved by defining a mathematical formula and estimating each component of the issue tree.

2) All these steps cannot be skipped, but you should improve your time management skills to fit them in 30-35 minutes maximum.

Let me know if you'd like more guidance on market sizing. I've built specific sessions on them.

Good luck,

Anto

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Florian
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Oct 18, 2021
Highest-rated McKinsey coach (ratings, offers, sessions) | 500+ offers | Author of The 1% & Consulting Career Secrets

Hey there,

 

For market sizing questions, keep it short and simple.

The biggest time saver is not to overengineer the segments, creating a false sense of precision (e.g., creating age distribution buckets).

I suggest the following approach:

 

1. Think about 3-4 variables that influence the outcome variable and their relationship

2a. Ask the interviewer for data on these numbers

2b. If no data is available, assume numbers and justify them

3. Plug the numbers in and calculate

4. Sanity check and interpret in the context of the question

 

No need for an issue tree, no need to overengineer it by creating segments (rather average it out). Most market sizing questions can be answered within 6-8 minutes with good precision.

Cheers,

Florian

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Marco-Alexander
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Oct 31, 2021
Former BCG | Case author for efellows book | Experience in 6 consultancies (Stern Stewart, Capgemini, KPMG, VW Con., Hor

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Pedro gave the best answer

Pedro

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