How to estimate market share in reality?

Question

Hi everyone,

I recently did a case called "Fringe Science" in Duke 2018, and started to wonder how to estimate the market share for a new product in a real consulting project. What I summurized from the case is: 1) identify the Key Purchasing Criteria, 2) compare competitive advantages with the competitors base on KPCs, 3) estimate the clients's market share.

Like in the case, client wants to enter a drug market where competitor A taking 75% and competitor B taking 25%, so we:

1) identify safety and efficacy are the KPCs given the price will be the same

2) know that safety and efficacy of client's drug are equal to the market leader's, so therefore client will take same market share as the competitor A

3) client might steal 5% from competitor B and split the rest of market with competitor, so the market share is 40%

Appreciate your answers!

Answer 1

Hi Bowen,

Two things:

1) I'm not quite clear what you're asking here? Do you want us to say good job? Or do you want feedback on a particular item?

2) Can you include more information about the case? Would help us to better help!

Answer 2

Hey Bowen!

Your approach seems to be working, but I would say that more details on the case are needed!

GB

Answer 3

You can estimate how much market share you think a player will capture in a few different ways, and then try to triangulate:

Case studies of other recent entrants - find benchmarks of how much of the market they managed to capture via press or financial releases
Speak to experts to get a gauge of what is possible - ideally leveraging industry subject matter experts
Top-down model based on reasonable assumptions

Truth is there is no right answer, and this is more art than science