I recently did a case called "Fringe Science" in Duke 2018, and started to wonder how to estimate the market share for a new product in a real consulting project. What I summurized from the case is: 1) identify the Key Purchasing Criteria, 2) compare competitive advantages with the competitors base on KPCs, 3) estimate the clients's market share.
Like in the case, client wants to enter a drug market where competitor A taking 75% and competitor B taking 25%, so we:
1) identify safety and efficacy are the KPCs given the price will be the same
2) know that safety and efficacy of client's drug are equal to the market leader's, so therefore client will take same market share as the competitor A
3) client might steal 5% from competitor B and split the rest of market with competitor, so the market share is 40%
Appreciate your answers!