Wondering how to approach this market sizing question?
My first thought was something like:
1) Clarify scope: Clarify the scope of commercial vehicles in scope (i.e. trucks, buses, fire fighter cars, emergency cars...)
2) Estimate share: Estimate the number for one segment and make an assumption of the share this segment has of the overall market (i.e. trucks will account for 30%?)
3) Estimate the number of one segment: Calculate the number of trucks:
- Supply side or demand side approach could be possible: e.g. demand could be narrowed down by looking at major users of trucks - supermarkets, assume one truck could cover two supermarkets per day, supermarkets need to be replenished once per day - estimate the total number of supermarkets and try to estimate how many trucks are required to supply them
- Make an assumption what the share of supermarkets as truck customers is (e.g. supermarkets account for 30%)