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# How to calculate the number of commercial cars in Germany?

Bain BCG Market sizing Mck
Recent activity on Jan 06, 2019
2.4 k Views

Wondering how to approach this market sizing question?

My first thought was something like:

1) Clarify scope: Clarify the scope of commercial vehicles in scope (i.e. trucks, buses, fire fighter cars, emergency cars...)

2) Estimate share: Estimate the number for one segment and make an assumption of the share this segment has of the overall market (i.e. trucks will account for 30%?)

3) Estimate the number of one segment: Calculate the number of trucks:

• Supply side or demand side approach could be possible: e.g. demand could be narrowed down by looking at major users of trucks - supermarkets, assume one truck could cover two supermarkets per day, supermarkets need to be replenished once per day - estimate the total number of supermarkets and try to estimate how many trucks are required to supply them
• Make an assumption what the share of supermarkets as truck customers is (e.g. supermarkets account for 30%)

• Date ascending
• Date descending

Hi!

Here is another approach:

2. Make an assumption re commercial / private ratio (e.g. every 5th vehicle I see in the street is commercial)

Best

That works!

There are various ways to get there. Another one for example would be to estimate the number of vehicles by inhabitants x nb of people in germany x multiplier to account for buses, trucks....

Make sure to do a sanity check at the end: if you find 8 millions or 800 millions, it is probably wrong for a country of 80-90 million.

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