How can I estimate the size of second-hand vehicle market (in unit) in China?

Market sizing
New answer on Nov 02, 2019
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Roy
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asked on Nov 02, 2019

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Vlad
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replied on Nov 02, 2019
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

1) Calculate the number of households

2) Calculate the number of vehicles (% households owning the vehicles)

3) Assume the lifetime of a car (let's say 10 yers) and the av. change of ownership rate (2 times in 10 years). Thus the replacement rate will be 1/5 cars per year

P.s. Don't forget about commercial vehicles. You can use personal experience to say that every 10th vehicle is commercial. Apply different replacement rate for them

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Vlad

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