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# Estimate the number of piano tuners in San Francisco?

estimation Guesstimate market estimation
New answer on Apr 30, 2020
3.1 k Views

Clarifying questions and assumptions:

Piano Tuners - These are people who tune pianos so that the piano produces the right notes. They are called on-demand by individuals with pianos or by places like music schools etc.

Assuming SF population → 1M

Equation:

# of piano tuners in SF = # of users with pianos x avg.piano tuner request frequency

# of users with piano in SF = # of households in SF with piano + # of individuals with pianos

SF is primarily occupied by singles or younger couples who don’t necessarily have a traditional household, Thus assuming 60% of SF is individuals and 40% are households.

400 individuals are part of household → 400K/3 → 133K households

600k individuals

Also, pianos are expensive to buy and maintain, so I am assuming only 50% of households and 25% individuals can actually potentially afford it. Assuming the household has a higher chance of buying it since there are usually 2 or more sources of income.

Potential SF TAM for Pianos

133K x 0.50 → 65K

600K/4 -> 150K

Assuming, 20% of this TAM actually has pianos in San Franciso → 0.2 x (150K+65K)

43K pianos are there in San Francisco.

In general, pianos would require tuning atleast once a quarter and a tuner can tune about 3 pianos per day.

Thus the number of piano tuners needed to meet this demand

43K/(3x90) = 160 piano tuners are in San Franciso

(edited)

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Hello!

Overall agree, but you are focusing on the household markets and forgetting the "public" pianos (e.g., restaurants, music schools, concert halls, etc.)

Cheers,

Clara

Hi PK,

My feedback would be the following:

1. 20% penetration seems very high to me. I would say that 5% or so maybe is more reasonable.

2. I am lacking the Pianos used my music schools, high schools, universities, etc. in your market sizing. I would assume that this also would be at least a reasonably large part of the market and these pianos are likely tuned for frequently.

If you add #2 you could consider segmenting the tuning frequency between privately-owned pianos and public ones.

Hi, I think it is a good approach. Always try to stay in 20 minutes and - if needed - accelerate some estimations by asking to the interviewer

Best,
Antonello

Clara gave the best answer
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