Was wonder what you guys thought of my approach... thanks in advance!
I would start with country population - assume x% eat poultry - normal frequency of consumption (eg 1kg/week, 1kg/month, 1kg/6 month)
But what assumptions should I make? Poultry isn’t really segmented by age. I could do social status and assume that richer classes buy more expensive/gourmet type options?
So I could go with 320 million - but I’d have to estimate how many people eat poultry and how often they do it. Based on habits by friends I would estimate that 80% of the U.S. population eats poultry. That makes it 256 million.
We could assume that
Upper-Middle/Higher Class: on average eat 1kg of poultry a week $12 per kg (15%)
Lower Middle : on average eat 1.5 kg of poultry a week $9 per kg (35%)
Lower/Working class: On average eat 1kg of poultry a week at an average price of 7$ per kg (50%)
That comes out to
Upper class - 15%*256 = 38 million. 38 million * 1 * 12 *52 = let’s make it 40*12*50 = 2.4 billion USD
Lower Middle = 35%*256= 90 million = 90*1.5=135 135*9*52 = 135*50= 6.75 billion * 9 = 60 billion
Lower working class = 132 million = 132*1*7*50= 130*50*7= 45 billion
So in total market for poultry is 45 + 60 + 2.5 = 107.5 billion