Estimate the market size for poultry in the U.S.?

marketsizing
New answer on Jul 07, 2021
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Was wonder what you guys thought of my approach... thanks in advance!

I would start with country population - assume x% eat poultry - normal frequency of consumption (eg 1kg/week, 1kg/month, 1kg/6 month)

But what assumptions should I make? Poultry  isn’t really segmented by age. I could do social status and assume that richer classes buy more expensive/gourmet type options?

So I could go with 320 million - but I’d have to estimate how many people eat poultry and how often they do it. Based on habits by friends I would estimate that 80% of the U.S. population eats poultry. That makes it 256 million.

We could assume that

Upper-Middle/Higher Class: on average eat 1kg of poultry a week \$12 per kg (15%)

Lower Middle : on average eat 1.5 kg of poultry a week \$9 per kg (35%)

Lower/Working class: On average eat 1kg of poultry a week at an average price of 7\$ per kg (50%)

That comes out to

Upper class - 15%*256 = 38 million. 38 million * 1 * 12 *52 = let’s make it 40*12*50 = 2.4 billion USD

Lower Middle = 35%*256= 90 million = 90*1.5=135 135*9*52 = 135*50= 6.75 billion * 9 = 60 billion

Lower working class = 132 million = 132*1*7*50= 130*50*7= 45 billion

So in total market for poultry is 45 + 60 + 2.5 = 107.5 billion

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Hi there,

You're right to break things down by weekly consumption and income, but what's the point in breaking it down by income if your eating habits are 1 kg, 1.5kg, and 1kg as income comes down? This is sort of nonsensical...your segments have to directly correlate to frequency of consumption! (Low income would eat the least, high income the most).

I might also add price per kg in the calcs, where you recognize that higher income individuals will pay more for poultry (both because prices where they lvie are more expensive and because they will demand higher quality produce)