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Ian

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2

Estimate the global jewellery market size

Hello all, 

Would love to hear your feedback on the below approach. 

Start by clarifying that the question requires an estimation in USD.

1/ Global Demgraphic (% of population who can afford or % people who are employed)

2/ Income level segmentation (per year: <10,000 USD; 10,000-30,000; 30,000-50,000; 50,000-100,000; >100,000)

3/ Spending per cap per segmentation

4/ Multiply each segment population and spending per cap, sum all of them up

Thank you!

Hello all, 

Would love to hear your feedback on the below approach. 

Start by clarifying that the question requires an estimation in USD.

1/ Global Demgraphic (% of population who can afford or % people who are employed)

2/ Income level segmentation (per year: <10,000 USD; 10,000-30,000; 30,000-50,000; 50,000-100,000; >100,000)

3/ Spending per cap per segmentation

4/ Multiply each segment population and spending per cap, sum all of them up

Thank you!

2 answers

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Hi there,

This is about right but there are some mistkaes

I have the following feedback though:

  • For #1, can you actually reasonably pick a % population who can afford? This is a bit of a leap (takeaway: This first step is too direct)
    • % employed is also not only a # you're likely to know well, but I can't see how it helps much
  • For #2 I again don't think you could reasonably guess # of people in these brackets. Rather, I would break the world population down into high income (i.e. US, Western Europe, etc), middle income, and poor. Then, further break down those regions by % upper class, % middle class, % poor. This is a far more reasonable set of steps
    • Of course, just completely eliminate any poor from further calcs

Hi there,

This is about right but there are some mistkaes

I have the following feedback though:

  • For #1, can you actually reasonably pick a % population who can afford? This is a bit of a leap (takeaway: This first step is too direct)
    • % employed is also not only a # you're likely to know well, but I can't see how it helps much
  • For #2 I again don't think you could reasonably guess # of people in these brackets. Rather, I would break the world population down into high income (i.e. US, Western Europe, etc), middle income, and poor. Then, further break down those regions by % upper class, % middle class, % poor. This is a far more reasonable set of steps
    • Of course, just completely eliminate any poor from further calcs

Thank you Ian for the feedback, very helpful! May I also get your opinion on, is it very rarely that the market sizing question would be focused at a global level, rather more at a country level? Say if the question is revised to estimate the jewellery market for China? What would be your feedback on the below approach? 1/ China Population 2/ Share of Rural / Urban population (rural population may have less access and would spend much less per year, can we safely assume they are negligible even after considering online channels?) 3/ Urban population by income (like you mentioned, is it better to segment them into high, middle, low income segments rather than into exact income range? also can I safely neglect low income segment) 4/ Divide urban high income and middle income population by male / female, find average of spend by income group, assume high income male would purchase the same amount if not more (through gifting to their partners and family members) and assume middle income male would shop less (occassional gifting) 5/ Multiply the segment population by income level and sum them up = total market size Would you say there is another approach to estimate the market to serve as validation? Thank you :) — Anonymous A on Jun 14, 2021

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