Bain market sizing

Market sizing
New answer on Jun 28, 2021
3 Answers
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Shuhan asked on Jun 27, 2021

Could you please estimate how much did poultry consumption decline because of covid-19 in 2020? 
I am not sure how to solve this sizing problem. Maybe break down to direct consumer vs processed chicken (restaurant type) and the later was badly influenced?

Hope you guys have better approaches:)

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Anonymous A replied on Jun 27, 2021

I would start with population of country - assume x% eat poultry - normal frequency of consumption (eg 1kg/week, 1kg/month, 1kg/6 month)- change of frequency in consumption (for eg if normally 50% people ate it 1x per week, I'd assume only 30% ate in once/week now given less disposable income, and calculate this 20% decline in consumption) - sum the incremental decline in kg/year consumed - multiply by price $/kg..this would give incremental decline in personal consumption market

then I'd assume x% of personal consumption is business consumption (restaurants)..justify it with some personal example like 1 out of 10 meals I eat is from restaurants. I'd also assume same frequency of consumption trends applied in restaurants just to keep things simple.

the total of the two segments would give the incremental decline. Would love to hear other suggestions and approaches.

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Ian
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replied on Jun 28, 2021
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Hi Shuhan,

This is a really tough one! Have you seen this pop up in an interview?

I think you have two routes here:

1) Estimate overall consumption per capita pre-covid, then look to estimate impact from covid (i.e. shift to eating at home, your observations of your own habits and friends habits, etc.)

2) Estimate restuarant consumption pre covid and personal consumption pre-covid. Then estimate the % decrease in restuarants and % increase in personal consumption

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Udayan
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replied on Jun 27, 2021
Top rated McKinsey Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /6 years McKinsey recruiting experience

Anonymous A has a good approach although some of their assumptions I do not agree with. Depending on where you are these can change. For example grocery food shopping increased in the US and restaurant food consumption declined by over 50%. Make assumptions on the split (Typically resaurants are much bigger consumers than individuals) and account for loss of consumption due to offices being shut as well.

Udayan

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