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Market sizing frage: Wie bricht man logisch den CO2 Verbrauch in Deutschland pro Jahr runter?

Hallo liebe Community,

 

Ich bewerbe mich grade bei Bain und habe gehört, dass eine beliebte Frage aktuell ist, den Co2 Ausstoß in Deutschland jährlich abzuschätzen. Hat jemand eine gute Idee zur Vorgangsweise?

Ich hätte gedacht, den Verbrauch in die einzelnen Sektoren aufzuteilen, jedoch finde ich es schwierig, Werte für Energiegewinnung / Industrie abzuschätzen.

 

Vielen Daank und liebe Grüße

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Top answer
Hagen
Coach
edited on Aug 11, 2023
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

I would be happy to share my thoughts on your question:

  • First of all, it is highly unlikely that Bain, whether in Germany or any other country, would ask any candidate this question, since it is more of a brain teaser than an actual market size estimation.
  • Moreover, the bottom-up approach you propose appears meaningful, even if estimating industrial CO2 emissions indeed is anything but easy. Instead, you could also estimate residential CO2 emissions and approximate what share of total CO2 emissions that would make up.
  • Lastly, however, please keep in mind that most major strategy consulting firms have not used standalone market size estimations for a long time. While this does not mean it never happens, this type of case study question may not be very meaningful for both the candidate and interviewer, as only a few skills are being tested. That being said, simpler market size estimations may still be a part of a case study, for instance when estimating the revenues of the client company is required.

If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to best prepare for your upcoming interviews, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.

Best,

Hagen

(I have now answered in English, so that other users can read my answer, even though I, of course, also speak German)

Ian
Coach
on Aug 10, 2023
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

If you can ask this question in English, you'll be more likely to get more answers!

First: Make sure to try this youself.

========================================

Market Sizing Approach

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

For top-down you need to segment by the most directly correlated measurements. Age makes sense for motorbikes but not for carrots. Income makes sense for mattresses and iPhones but not for # planes in the sky.

An Example

I answered a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

on Aug 10, 2023
#1 rated McKinsey Coach | top MBB coach

Hi there!

One point to add to what was mentioning before. 

When practicing market sizing, aim to come up with 2-3 alternative approaches. 

This will help push the boundaries of your creativity. And it will also prevent you getting stuck in interviews. 

Realistically speaking, for every market sizing question there are multiple ways of solving it. So brainstorm what they are. 

In an interview, you can also present to the interviewer your 2 leading approaches and suggest which one you'd like to focus on. 

Best,
Cristian

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