Market Sizing Approach

Hey there, for this you could start by estimating the number of people passing Stephanusplatz per day, then estimate what fraction might buy a sausage, and how many sausages each would likely buy. You can refine it by considering peak hours, local events, and the type of vendors. Multiplying people × fraction buying × average sausages per person gives a solid estimate. You can also cross-check with nearby similar areas for validation. best, Alessa :)

Hi there,

You’d usually take a top-down or bottom-up approach, for example:

• Top-down: Estimate the population in the area, how many people might eat sausages per day, and how many sausages each person buys on average. Multiply those together for a rough daily total
• Bottom-up: Start with the number of sausage vendors or stands in the area, estimate how many sausages each sells per hour, multiply by their operating hours, and then sum across all vendors to get a daily total

Hi there,

Approach (top-down):

1. Footfall → Buyers → Units
   • Estimate daily passers-by in Stephanusplatz
   • % who buy a sausage (conversion)
   • Avg sausages per buyer

Formula:
Sausages/day = Footfall × Conversion × Sausages per buyer

Example:

• Footfall: 20,000/day
• Conversion: 3% → 600 buyers
• Sausages/buyer: 1.2 → ~720 sausages/day

Cross-check (bottom-up):
4 stands × 10 hrs × 18 transactions/hr × 1.1 sausages = ~790/day, consistent with above.

Refinements:

• Split by weekday/weekend or time of day
• Adjust for weather, season, or local events
• Differentiate locals vs. tourists

Conclude with a rounded range (e.g. 600–900 sausages/day) and note factors driving variation (footfall, weather, events).

Happy to help you prep – feel free to reach out!
 

Best, 

Evelina

I see you've already received a few suggestions. 

Actually, chatGPT or alternatives are decent on suggsetion market sizing approaches. It's especially useful if you come up with a suggestion and then ask for feedback on it and then for alternatives ways of doing it. Still, make sure that you validate / sanity-check the approaches properly because some might be off.

Best,
Cristian