Specifically, an estimate of the annual number of electric scooters sold in a year. Does it make sense to segment the market by age clusters and then by potential customers — that is, people who live in cities and are either students or workers with commutes of 5–7 km from home? Once these people are identified, could you further segment them by their possible modes of transportation: car, bicycle, motorbike, public transportation and electric scooter? After estimating the number of electric scooters, divide by their lifespan to obtain an annual figure?
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There are many paths to reach this, top down/bottom up, or estimate usage first or production as yardstick
You’ll probably end up using steps that are easy to find numbers from, so that you can plug them into your approach
e.g. Start with the total number of road miles per year… exclude Miles from with four or more wheels… Exclude manual bicycle miles or recreational miles… exclude gas motorcycle miles… Exclude other things you can exclude out and you would have some kind of final estimate on electric scooter miles/year
Then you look at the growth rate and estimate how much growth happened each year, divide the growth (in miles) by average miles per scooter, and then you will have how many new scooters came into play
Many approaches will work, this is just the first one that came to mind
