Estimate the number of uber rides?

Question

Assuming:

Talking about uber car-based rides and not scooters, public transit, or helicopter.
This is # of rides per day.
US only.

Approach:

Estimate the # of uber riders x their average number of rides per day. --- (a)

Splitting (a) by power users, normal users dormant users.

Estimate the volume of each of the above user types and count their rides/day separately.

US population = 300M

Target Uber audience in the range 15-65, with average life expectance of 80 years.

Thus, the target user count 50/80x300M = 190M

Assuming 70% of these users actually use Uber → 130M users

Based on my experience seeing users, 20% of users, in general, tend to be power ridesharing user, they use it atleast 1 time a week.

60% are normal users - Use it atleast 1 time a month

20% are dormant users use it once every quarter,

26M power → Daily rides → 26M/7 rides per day → 3.7M rides/day
26M casual users → 26M/90 rides per day → 0.2M rides/day
78M normal users → 78M/30 rides per day → 2.6 M rides/day

Thus total rides per day → 3.7M + 0.2M + 2.6M ~6.5M rides per day

Any feedback on my approach and assumptions?

Answer 1

Hi PK,

Overall a good and logical approach!

Just some small points on assumptions.

(1) 70% penetration of ride-hailing seems high. While it could be possible in the big metropolitan cities like NY or SF, outside the handful of big cities the penetration rate would be rather low.

(2) Don't forget there is Lyft also. So besides the 70% penetration rate, you probably need to think about market share as well. At the moment Lyft probably is comparable or just a bit smaller than Uber?

Cheers,

Emily

Answer 2

Hi PK,

Generally a very solid approach. What would give you plus points is to sanity check the numbers throughout. Complementary to what others have said the numbers are high.

1) The general consensus is that this 70% is way too high and this might a bias that you want to be aware of (given your tech background). What would have scored you extra points are to think about alternative modes of transportation and that would have prompted you that 70% is likely to be high. Having said that, your segmentation somewhat corrects for this.

2) Second, clear reasoning on the 70% is missing as well. For these high impact numbers, it is smart to mention why you made that assumption (even if it is based on your own experience).

3) Important with market sizing questions is to do a quick sensitivity check at the end. E.g. acknowledging that your analysis is based on a few sensitive decisions/data points.

Answer 3

Hi PK,

A reasonably good and detailed approach....I like your segmentation. Few points that could make it stronger:

1. Market share - The addressable market for ride sharing - 70% assumption seems high considering so may alternatives (own car, public transport in arge cities, etc). In addition, you have to add a "market share" factor for Uber which would reduce the potential Uber rider population

2. Reality check - Once you come up with market estimation, always do a gut check. Your 6.5M rides per day seems v. large (2% of US population or 1 in 50 people will take Uber). A lot of people forget to do this - a good way to differentiate yourself (also a desirable characteristics for a Consultant).

Good luck!

Sanjeev

Answer 4

Hi PK,

Overall I think your approach makes sense. I have a few ideas which I think could improve the market sizing even further:

1. Remove U.S. Population that does not live in urban areas or outside the 300 or so cities in which Uber has a presence. Around 50% of people in developed countries live in urban areas so that could be an easy assumption to use.

2. Reduce overall % of people that are Uber as 70% seems a little bit high to me.

3. Account for Uber's market share in the market. You have other competitors such as Lyft to account for.

Another way to think of this market sizing problem would be to start with the US population and try to estimate how many trips of various kinds that people would need to undertake per day, then what share Uber rides what take from the total.

Answer 5

Hello PK,

I can see at least two different approachs for this estimation.

You can either think about (i) the # of users, like you did, or (ii) the # of drivers. To choose one, think about which one has a lower level of uncertainty on your assumptions.For instance, why do you believe 70% of target users actually use Uber? How can you anchor and justify this number?

Personally, I would choose the second options because I believe it is easier to justify the assumptions needed:

* # drivers in the US

* Drivers segmentation: full-time vs part-time

* Average working hours for both full-time and part-time

* Average rides per hour: average ride (min) + average waiting time (min)

Please note that we can add as many layers of complexity as we wish. For example, we could have split working hours into peak and non-peak.

Try this approach to do the estimation and, then, we can discuss your assumptions as well.

Also, use it to double check your first answer!

Cheers,

Answer 6

Again, good logic but too high estimations

Answer 7

Hi, I think it is a good approach. Always try to stay in 20 minutes and - if needed - accelerate some estimations by asking to the interviewer

Best,
Antonello

Answer 8

Hi,

Your approach is indeed a good one.

If you want to master your market sizing skills I suggest you focus on segmentations patterns. You can use the following segmentation for market sizes:

B2C:
-Demographics (Age, education, income, family size, race, gender, occupation, nationality)
-Behavioral (Purchasing behavior, customer journey stage, occasion & timing,
customer loyalty & interest, risk tolerance, user status)
-Psychographic (Lifestyle, personality traits, values, opinions, interests of consumers)
-Geographic (Geographical boundaries)

B2B:
-Company characteristics (Industry, company size, number of employees)
-Geography (Geographical boundaries)
-Purchasing Approach (Occasion & timing, customer capabilities, nature of existing relationship)
-Personal Characteristics (Loyalty, risk attitude, user status)

B2G:
-Demographics (Type of agency, size of budget, the amount of autonomy)
-Geographic (Geographical boundaries)
-Government Tier (Federal , State, Local, Quasi-governmental, International)
-Bid type (Closed, Open)

But sometimes you don’t need to segmentation. Here is an example of case that could be solved with high level top down approach - estimate the size of credit card market in the US:
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-should-i-approach-the-following-question-estimate-the-market-size-of-credit-cards-in-the-us-6695

Answer 9

Question - Estimate the number of Uber rides?

Clarifying questions and Assumptions -

Considering only the Delhi NCR region, India

Calculating # no rides per day

Will consider all cab rides (Uber go, Sedan, premier, auto, bike, share, etc) but not food delivery rides

Approach: To come to a reasonable number I will user below equation

# number of Uber rides in Delhi NCR per day = #of uber users * avg. no of rides

Now I will calculate the number of uber users in the Delhi NCR region

The total population of Delhi NCR = 20M

Internet and smartphone users = ~50% so the remaining number is 10M

Assuming the target audience which might use online cab services is 60% which makes it 6M.

Assuming Uber and OLA being 2 major players in the NCR region with equal market share so uber’s market share is approximately 50% which implies 3M users of UBER in Delhi NCR

Now to calculate avg no of rides per day I will break the Uber users in the following segments -

Power users = 10% of 3M = 0.3M and takes 10 rides per week making ~0.42 M rides per day

Daily users = 20% of 3M = 0.6M and takes 5 rides per week making ~0.42 M rides per day

Frequent users = 30% of 3M = 0.9M and takes 2 rides per week making ~0.25 M rides per day

Casual users = 20% of 3M = 0.6M and takes 1 ride per month making ~0.02 M rides per day

Rare users = 20% of 3M = 0.6M and takes 1 ride per quarter making ~0.007 M rides per day

Total uber rides per day = Total no of rides by all different types of users

Total uber rides in Delhi NCR per day is around 1.1 M rides