Economic environment/Business Cycle 2023-2024

Hi there,

None of us have a crystal ball so the best thing you can do is hedge your bets. In practice, this means your profile needs to be attractive, whatever happens.

• Recession: You must be able to sell yourself as a crisis manager who can drive transformation and cost cutting initiatives to save the bottom line.
• Growth: You must be able to sell yourself as a driver for growth and being able to take advantage of the upswing after a crisis.

I work in commodity trading and this is how we deal with the uncertainty of crude oil price development, for example. We use hedging to de-risk our position.

By the way, consultancies do this very well and “never let a good crisis go to waste” (Winston Churchill). They position themselves according to what the general economy does and they win whether there's an upswing or a decline.

Hope this helps! Best of luck!

Hi there,

I don't think anyone knows the exact economic cycle for 2023/24 (and if they knew, they would not share it here and rather make a ton of money in the stock market).

In any case, I guess you have an underlining question you didn't present, which is what you are really looking for. 

For example, whether to enroll in the program or not.

To get feedback on that I would recommend the following:

1. Identify the options available (eg enroll in the program or not)
2. Share what is your goal with that (eg increase your salary / land in a specific firm)
3. Clarify what is your question (eg should I enroll in the program)

This will help us to provide better answers and possibly help with the decision.

Hope this helps,

Francesco

Hi there,

Economic theory + history indicates that recessions generally happen 18 months after the beginning of an interest rate hike cycle.

However, as Larry Summers says: No real economist will ever say something is 100%.

We just don't know.

Signs are pointing to an upcoming recession. But recessions can be 2008 or 1990. We have had 14 since the Great Depression. Meaning? They are common.

“The average recession has lasted 17 months, while the six recessions since 1980 have lasted less than 10 months on average”

(Source: Investopedia)

I'm giving you a “nothing” answer with lots of facts because that is the reality. We don't know.

Because of that, you should ideally make this decision based on your own individual situation more than anything.

Nobody can tell you for sure. Sadly, we have destroyed the planet, many countries are destabilised and the human desire does not seem to settle. So, unfortunately we have to get used to living in unstable market, environment and social conditions. How exactly businesses adapt to this, is to be seen.

Make your moves based on all the information and knowledge you have “now”. More importantly, if you have genuine reasons to do that 1-year program and have calculated your risk/worst case scenario, go for it and let things happen. 

All the best.

Hello!

Very much agree with Francesco here! It´s so hard to predict, but also we would need more info to tell you our 2 cents (e.g., it doesn´t impact the same way the way the market is, if you are an MBA graduating from a top program than from another type of master, etc.)

Cheers, 

Clara