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Stuck with a market sizing question: "What is the market size of professional camera in the US?"

Market sizing
New answer on Jan 25, 2021
4 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Jan 21, 2021

Hi everyone, I recently got this practice question asking the market size of professional camera in the US. Let's assume here that professional camera means camera used strictly in movies production. I was trying to estimate it by finding the total amount of movie projects in the US in a year multiplied by the average camera needed per project. To find the total amount of movie projects per year, I was trying to estimate through finding how many movies a cinema plays in a year and what percentage of them are made one year before, but I realized this was a poor proxy to find the total number of projects, but honestly I can't think of any other way. Would really appreciate if you can give your thoughts on this, thanks!

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Ian
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Jan 21, 2021
#1 BCG coach | MBB | Tier 2 | Digital, Tech, Platinion | 100% personal success rate (8/8) | 95% candidate success rate

Hi there,

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Denis
Expert
replied on Jan 22, 2021
Goldman Sachs Investment Banker NYC | Ex-Bain 5 yrs| MBA Chicago Booth | Passed > 13 MBB > 20 IB interviews

Hi,

I think your proxy is not ideal since it is based on some assumptions. You assume implicity that a camera is only and exclusively used on one project. Once that project is finished, camera is used for the next one. This does not HAVE to be true - only could be true.

Look below for the general approach on how to tackle market estimations. Key are the different approaches and you investigating those quickly when you take your silent minute figuring out the structure etc. Ask yourself what is really driving the market. The projects? perhaps (see above). Number of TV news channels and number of big studios? perhaps. Cinema revenues, perhaps, but rather no.

  1. Think about formula (not just a flimsy approach, literally an algorithm)
    1. How many approaches are there (bottom-up vs. top-down)?
    2. What are the upsides / downsides of each approach? Which one should I choose given the limited time in a case? Explain this to the iviewer.
  2. Necessary assumptions / key drivers (no numbers at this point, just in terms of important Proxies by thinking VERY practical). This is why you should ask follow-up questions after the case prompt. Not for the sake of asking but to help you identify Step 1 and 2. If you dont understand the basic business model and how the service / product PRACTICALLY works and is used, I dont see how you can comfortably estimate the market size.
  3. Do the Math transparently using clear language. No mumbling. Double-check your numbers before you speak up.
  4. Sense-check the result (!) 2 ways mostly work: checking your calculations and scrutinizing your key assumptions. Or using other "proxies", perhaps other bottom-up or top-down approaches brain-stormed before. You need to be able to tell me as an iviewer if you think your result is too high / low at least. Ideally also give me a rough range of the expected result with a rationale.
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Clara
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Jan 23, 2021
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

Remember that they are plenty of ways to calculate a market sizing, not only one. Quite honestly, I think yours is a very reasonable approach.

Cheers,

Clara

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Gaurav
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Jan 25, 2021
#1 MBB Coach(Placed 750+ in MBBs & 1250+ in Tier2)| The Only 360 coach(Ex-McKinsey + Certified Coach + Active recruiter)

Hi there,

I think there is quite a gap in your approach in the assumption that professional cameras are only the ones used for movies production. What about advertisings, TV-shows, documentaries, music videos, news etc.? I mean it' a reasonable approach but it doesn't hold..

Try to dicide first-hand if you want to go bottom-up or top-down, maybe that will help you look at the question from another perspective.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

GB

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Ian gave the best answer

Ian

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