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Reg: Estimating the total woman population pregnant at any given time

To estimate the number of women pregnant at any time in China, they have

Firstly, they have solved for the % of women pregnant any time and arrived at (2%)

Secondly, they have assumed that 50% of China's population as women.

Thirdly, they have directly multiplied 2% with the total women count in China.

Shouldn't we segment the women population again into age-groups before the aforementioned 3rd step to get a realistic number of pregnant women in China?

To estimate the number of women pregnant at any time in China, they have

Firstly, they have solved for the % of women pregnant any time and arrived at (2%)

Secondly, they have assumed that 50% of China's population as women.

Thirdly, they have directly multiplied 2% with the total women count in China.

Shouldn't we segment the women population again into age-groups before the aforementioned 3rd step to get a realistic number of pregnant women in China?

(edited)

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Hello Babu,

I fear that you didn't get the meaning of the first passage. I will try to reword the process below:

  1. Estimation of the pregnancy time per each woman in China:: - Assume a woman has on average 2 babies --> Total pregnancy time= 9 months * 2 =18 months (1.5 years)
  2. Average life expexctancy, 75 years
  3. Percentage of pregnancy time per woman - Total pregnancy time / Average life expectancy = 1.5 / 75 = 2%

This last percentage is equal to probability that a given woman in China is pregnant. Considering this, to estimate the population of women pregnant, is enough to multiply the women population in China (50% of total polutaion) by 2%.

Does it make sense?
Feel free to contact me if you want to discuss it further.

Best,
Luca

Hello Babu,

I fear that you didn't get the meaning of the first passage. I will try to reword the process below:

  1. Estimation of the pregnancy time per each woman in China:: - Assume a woman has on average 2 babies --> Total pregnancy time= 9 months * 2 =18 months (1.5 years)
  2. Average life expexctancy, 75 years
  3. Percentage of pregnancy time per woman - Total pregnancy time / Average life expectancy = 1.5 / 75 = 2%

This last percentage is equal to probability that a given woman in China is pregnant. Considering this, to estimate the population of women pregnant, is enough to multiply the women population in China (50% of total polutaion) by 2%.

Does it make sense?
Feel free to contact me if you want to discuss it further.

Best,
Luca

Hello!

- Step 1: multiply per 50% since half of the population are women (the rest gest inmediately excluded)

- Step 2: multiply again per 2%, that is the % of a woman´s life in which she is pregnant:

- 2 pregnacies on average per lady

- 1.8 years pregnant/life expectancy of 80 years old = ~2%

Alternatively, you can follow the approach you mention and divide the total population into age groups, in order to determine how many babies are born in a given year, to later divide by the total women. However, it´s much longer.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

Hello!

- Step 1: multiply per 50% since half of the population are women (the rest gest inmediately excluded)

- Step 2: multiply again per 2%, that is the % of a woman´s life in which she is pregnant:

- 2 pregnacies on average per lady

- 1.8 years pregnant/life expectancy of 80 years old = ~2%

Alternatively, you can follow the approach you mention and divide the total population into age groups, in order to determine how many babies are born in a given year, to later divide by the total women. However, it´s much longer.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

To make things easier you could also calculate the number of births per year.

To make things easier you could also calculate the number of births per year.

Agree. The easiest approach would be to use the replacement effect in determining the birth rate. If we consider the population is 1.4B and average life expectancy as 70 years, we would get the birth rate as 20M and that equals the number of pregnant women in China at any given time, assuming that the population growth is negligible. — Riyas on Jan 06, 2021 (edited)