To estimate the number of women pregnant at any time in China, they have
Firstly, they have solved for the % of women pregnant any time and arrived at (2%)
Secondly, they have assumed that 50% of China's population as women.
Thirdly, they have directly multiplied 2% with the total women count in China.
Shouldn't we segment the women population again into age-groups before the aforementioned 3rd step to get a realistic number of pregnant women in China?
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To make things easier you could also calculate the number of births per year.
Hello Babu,
I fear that you didn't get the meaning of the first passage. I will try to reword the process below:
This last percentage is equal to probability that a given woman in China is pregnant. Considering this, to estimate the population of women pregnant, is enough to multiply the women population in China (50% of total polutaion) by 2%.
Does it make sense?
Feel free to contact me if you want to discuss it further.
Best,
Luca
Hello!
- Step 1: multiply per 50% since half of the population are women (the rest gest inmediately excluded)
- Step 2: multiply again per 2%, that is the % of a woman´s life in which she is pregnant:
- 2 pregnacies on average per lady
- 1.8 years pregnant/life expectancy of 80 years old = ~2%
Alternatively, you can follow the approach you mention and divide the total population into age groups, in order to determine how many babies are born in a given year, to later divide by the total women. However, it´s much longer.
Hope it helps!
Cheers,
Clara
Agree. The easiest approach would be to use the replacement effect in determining the birth rate. If we consider the population is 1.4B and average life expectancy as 70 years, we would get the birth rate as 20M and that equals the number of pregnant women in China at any given time, assuming that the population growth is negligible.
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