I understand that hiring for 2020 start dates is for all intents and purposes frozen except for very, very special candidates like ones with specific expertise in areas like digital transformation or epidemiology, but I was wondering if anyone could weigh in on the timing to apply as a generalist experienced hire.

Given that there's a bottleneck of delayed new starts, I'm guessing that the first few recruitment cycles that start back up are going to be incredibly competitive, especially for non-campus hires where the firms don't have a secondary interest in maintaining school relationships.

My question is if one has referrals from EM/Principal types as an experienced candidate with <2 years of WE since leaving graduate school (aka going for C1), would it be a waste of resources to apply immediately if I have anything short of a Rhodes and that I should apply next year instead? Or is hiring likely to be impacted for several years and I might as well apply at the end of this year when my references are the strongest and I know they haven't left yet?

I ask because I don't have a terribly deep network of people that could refer me and I'd like to make my referrals count. My guess is that the the most immediate recruiting cycle will be most impacted by this current botleneck of deferred starts but there's a lot of uncertainty about COVID19's future effects, if there's multiple waves, etc. Hoping someone with more internal knowledge can speak more definitively on the best course of action here.

(edited)