I need our input on two things;
- A general question: The population of Norway is 5.3 million. That is a very difficult number to use with mental math. Both 1/80 (each age group) and 1/3, ¼ (different segmentations) are not clean enough for me to use in the market sizing. Neither is 5.5 million. 5.2 million is OK. My question is basically; should I go with 5.2 million here, or is it possible to round down to 5 million? That would make my life considerably easier, but at the same time, I think it is somewhat a stretch in terms of rounding.
- Over to the market sizing; a friend got this market sizing in an interview recently, and I am not sure how to approach it. I give it a shot below:
How much milk is consumed in Norway each year?
- Lets go with a population of 5.2 million
- I do not think it makes sense to segment the population by age, as a 13 year old girl might on average drink as much milk as a 60 year old man. I will segment it by how much of a “milk-drinker” they are
- Does not drink milk (20%)
- Drink small amounts – 5 glasses a week – 1 every weekday (50%)
- Drinks a lot of milk – two glasses every weekday – 10 glasses a week (30%)
- This gives
- Does not drink milk = 1 million x 0 = 0
- Drink small amounts = 2.6 million x 5 = 13 million glasses
- Drinks a lot of milk = 1.6 million x 10 = 16 million glasses
- This gives a total of 29 million glasses a week, or round of to 30 million glasses a week.
- One glass of milk is about 3 dl, so that gives 90 million dl, or 9 million litres a week
- So the total consumption of milk then becomes 9m x 50 weeks a year = 450m litres a year
My problem is that consumption of regular liquid milk is not the only “source” of milk, and that was exactly what my friend was failing at during his case. How should I incorporate the fact that we consume A LOT of milk through other food? How would I structure/segment that?