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Anonymous A
on Oct 04, 2021
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market sizing: market size of coffee (in gram)

Hey guys! Hope you all can help me out here.

I was wondering if I can estimate the market size of coffee this way:

1st source → coffee drinks :

1) break down the population:

- don't drink coffee at all (20%) = 0 cups / wk

- average joe (50%) = 5 cups / wk

- coffee lovers (30%) = 10 cups / wk

2) total # cups / 10 gr of coffee ground = total # of coffee ground

 

2nd source → other coffee-based products such as cakes, coffee-milk, coffee body scrub (this is getting popular in my country)

 

Is the framework okay? I assume that the amount of coffee drunk by people include the ones in their household, office, or cafes. Do I need to further break it down based on location? Also, do we need to narrow it down as much as we can e.g. based on their ability to afford the product or instant coffee vs premium coffee? I still find it hard to understand when to break it down as much as possible vs just consider it inclusive.

Moreover, for the 2nd source, any tips on how to approach it? I'm not sure how because I think I need to look at each product, but then will it be too complicated? Also, I'm sure that there are other coffee-based products that I may not include.

Any help will be much appreciated, thankyou so much!

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Top answer
Pedro
Coach
on Oct 04, 2021
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

Two observations on your approach:

  1. If only 20% don't drink coffee, then everyone who is an adult is drinking coffee. This is not realistic.
  2. You approach the 2nd “source” the same way you do the 1st. Assume that the product has a certain quantity of coffee and then a frequency of consumption.

This is only volume, not market value. I doubt a case would focus on volume and not market value. For market value you would need to take into account different segments/price points, and this would be too simplistic for that.

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Anonymous A
on Oct 04, 2021
Thanks for your answer! Do you mind clarifying point #1? Do you mind sharing how you would approach this? Thank you!
Pedro
Coach
on Oct 04, 2021
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session
Probably would say that 20% of the population (1-18) don't drink coffee because of their age.
Then I would break down the remaining 80% as you did - 20%/50%/30%.
Anonymous A
on Oct 04, 2021
Thankyou Pedro for replying! Could you clarify this statement you mentioned before, "For market value you would need to take into account different segments/price points, and this would be too simplistic for that."?

So if the question is asking for market value, can I:
1) just multiply the % of different price points from the total # of cups? E.g. we get 1 mil cups of coffee. Then I would assume 60% for average price and 40% for premium price?
2) or better further narrow each % population segment based on the different price points: 50% average joe -> 30% drink premium coffee, and so on

Many thanks!
Pedro
Coach
on Oct 04, 2021
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session
There are, as always, several approaches:
1) Consider the initial segments as also an indicator of willingness to pay for a coffe. It works, but it doesn't seem to be a realistic assumption. So would only use this approach as last resort
2) It would be more "elegant" to subdivide each segment into "mainstream" and "high value". So for example you would have 80% of average joes buying the "mainstream coffee" and 20% the "high value"; and then the "coffee lovers" with for example 40% vs. 60% percentage.
3) You could take the total coffee in volume and then think about where it is consumed. Probably 20% at home, 30% at regular coffee shops/restaurants, 10% at premium coffee shops and 40% at work, each one with a different price point. I find this one elegant because you show you can use different approaches to find a desired result.
Ian
Coach
edited on Oct 05, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

You've overly simplified the problem!

The entire point of market sizing is to break down the problem into segments that move you FROM guessing and TOWARDS estimating

Where'd you get average joes and coffee lovers? You made it up…that's not market sizing!

Rather, segment by things you do know (age, income, location) and referene yourself + other people around you. Leverage your observations of the world.

To be frank, you need a lot of work with your mindset shift in market sizing. This isn't going to be resolved by back-and-forth Q&A unfortunately. (You need to read up on the topic more, practice with others, and, if you can, get a coach to talk you through the thinking)

Take a look here for a Market Sizing answer I just gave for some more explanation of the mindset required: https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/market-sizing-case-on-how-many-cactus-in-a-country-11725

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Marco-Alexander
Coach
edited on Nov 30, 2021
Former BCG | Case author for efellows book | Experience in 6 consultancies (Stern Stewart, Capgemini, KPMG, VW Con., Hor

. 

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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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