Hey guys! Hope you all can help me out here.
I was wondering if I can estimate the market size of coffee this way:
1st source → coffee drinks :
1) break down the population:
- don't drink coffee at all (20%) = 0 cups / wk
- average joe (50%) = 5 cups / wk
- coffee lovers (30%) = 10 cups / wk
2) total # cups / 10 gr of coffee ground = total # of coffee ground
2nd source → other coffee-based products such as cakes, coffee-milk, coffee body scrub (this is getting popular in my country)
Is the framework okay? I assume that the amount of coffee drunk by people include the ones in their household, office, or cafes. Do I need to further break it down based on location? Also, do we need to narrow it down as much as we can e.g. based on their ability to afford the product or instant coffee vs premium coffee? I still find it hard to understand when to break it down as much as possible vs just consider it inclusive.
Moreover, for the 2nd source, any tips on how to approach it? I'm not sure how because I think I need to look at each product, but then will it be too complicated? Also, I'm sure that there are other coffee-based products that I may not include.
Any help will be much appreciated, thankyou so much!
Then I would break down the remaining 80% as you did - 20%/50%/30%.
So if the question is asking for market value, can I:
1) just multiply the % of different price points from the total # of cups? E.g. we get 1 mil cups of coffee. Then I would assume 60% for average price and 40% for premium price?
2) or better further narrow each % population segment based on the different price points: 50% average joe -> 30% drink premium coffee, and so on
Many thanks!
1) Consider the initial segments as also an indicator of willingness to pay for a coffe. It works, but it doesn't seem to be a realistic assumption. So would only use this approach as last resort
2) It would be more "elegant" to subdivide each segment into "mainstream" and "high value". So for example you would have 80% of average joes buying the "mainstream coffee" and 20% the "high value"; and then the "coffee lovers" with for example 40% vs. 60% percentage.
3) You could take the total coffee in volume and then think about where it is consumed. Probably 20% at home, 30% at regular coffee shops/restaurants, 10% at premium coffee shops and 40% at work, each one with a different price point. I find this one elegant because you show you can use different approaches to find a desired result.