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Anonymous A
on Oct 14, 2019
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market sizing: Estimate revenue from a sports-outlet store

Hi guys,

My friend got this one in an interview recently: "How would you estimate the annual revenues from a sports-outlet in a given city?" They gave the name of the outlet (which you probably dont know as it is a national player in Sweden),  but it is a large chain known for all of their big warehouses. They buy in large quantities, and hence can sell at lower prices. However, this is not very relevant as I understand it. Anyways, they just wanted to know the revenues from ONE of these warehouses annually. 

I wish I could give it a shot here so you can adjust my apporach, but I rally dont know ho wto approach it. There are thousands of different products, with different prices, so to me this seems almost impossible. Maybe you could look at the average number who walks in the front door, but again, the prices of the thousands of products are so different, so it does not make any sense to make an average price.

How would you guys approach this one?

Best,

K

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Vlad
Coach
on Oct 14, 2019
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

  1. Define the time it takes for a single person to pay
  2. Define max number of people paying in a singly cashier line per shift
  3. Multiply by the average utilization of the cashier line
  4. Multiply by the number of lines
  5. Multiple by the av check based on your personal experience
  6. Multiply by the number of months, adjusting to seasonality

Best

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Udayan
Coach
edited on Oct 14, 2019
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /12 years recruiting experience

Hi, below is one approach to get to this number for sales in one particular outlet

I will assume that the main purchases are 2-fold - 1. Sports equipment and 2. Sports clothing

To get overall market size :

  • Estimate population of the city
  • Divide into individual age brackets assuming uniform distribution
  • Estimate % that play sports of some kind by age :
    • Almost all children 6-18 can be assumed to play sports of some kind; for college (18-22) this number should drop by 60% or so and for adults maybe 20-30% play sports regularly
  • Now assume that for children they need new gear at least once a year as they grow out of equipment fast
  • Adults this can be once in 2 years or less, anything is reasonable if you can explain it
  • Now to make it simple assume some sort of an average price for the spend, let's say $100 for children each time and $250 for adults each time
  • Multiply the two to get an initial estimation

For sports clothes

  • Next, estimate the % that go to gym or do outdoors physical activity that requires gear
    1. Relevant for all children <18 - assume 10%
    2. College assume 40%-60% or so
    3. Adults - need country context but say 20% to 40% do some sort of regular physical activity
  • Make assumptions on how often you need new gear for these activities - I would use the same as for sports gear
  • Assume some sort of avg price , say $100 for children,  $200 for adults
  • Multiply the two to get the estimation
  • Add both the numbers to get total market size for sports gear and clothes
  • Next get market share of this chain (If it is a dominant chain you can assume 30 to 60% depending on the context you have)
  • Multiply market size by this above percentage to get sales for the chain in question
  • Divide revenue by number of stores
  • This should give you annual sales for one store (with the assumption that sales are equally distributed)

To make it more realistic you can get separate market shares for sports goods vs sports clothes as people shop for those two things very differently

Hope this helps,
Udayan

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Ian
Coach
on Dec 31, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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