Market Sizing

Market sizing
New answer on Dec 31, 2021
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Anonymous A asked on Jun 19, 2018

Estimate the monthly search queries in the US ?

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Vlad
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replied on Jun 19, 2018
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

First of all check the objective - is that search in google, or search everywhere (i.e. Amazon, Facebook, Spotify)

Then I would use the following approach:

  1. Size of US population - 320 M ppl
  2. Split the population into several age groups: Kids - 10-20, millennials 20-30, adults 30-60, elderly 60-80.
  3. Assuming that the people are spread evenly and there are 4M people of each age - calculate the size of each group (.e.g. kids 40M)
  4. Multiply the size of the group by internet penetration (i.e. 100% for millennials and 65% for elderly)
  5. Assume the number of queries per each age group per month (Use yourself and your personal experience as a benchmark for millennials and your Grandmother for elderly people) and multiply it with the number of people
  6. Sum up the age groups

Best

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Ian
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replied on Dec 31, 2021
MBB | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Vlad gave the best answer

Vlad

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McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School
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