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Anonymous A
on Feb 01, 2021
Global
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How would you estimate the market size for vegan shampoos in the UK?

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Antonello
Coach
on Feb 02, 2021
McKinsey | NASA | top 10 FT MBA professor for consulting interviews | 6+ years of coaching

Hi, in addition to the solutions proposed by the other coaches in the discussion, I would like to suggest similar cases in the platform to practice with:

  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-much-would-you-charge-to-clean-all-the-windows-in-seattle-4965
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/market-sizing-milk-consumption-5087
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-calculate-the-value-of-a-cow-4982
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/estimate-number-of-traffic-lights-in-a-london-5692

Hope it helps,
Antonello

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Udayan
Coach
on Feb 01, 2021
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /12 years recruiting experience

This would be a subset of

  • Vegans (~3-5%) - can include 80% of folks here as being vegan is an identity
  • People that care about clean beauty products - you can estimate it based on something rational...any number around 10-20% would be reasonable in my opinion
  • Subset of people that care enough about animal rights to switch shampoos - (first calculate those that care about animal rights and then a small percentage of them that would shift)

With those numbers you can easily estimate it using standard population metrics.

Best,

Udayan

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Ian
Coach
on Feb 02, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success
  1. Population of country
  2. Split by income/wealth level (poor, middle, upper class)
  3. Estimate frequency of shampoo purchase by group per year (of course, moderately directly correlated with socioeconomic status...benchmark off of your annualy usage)
  4. Estimate % of each group that would use vegan shampoos (also strongly correlated with socioeconomic status)
  5. Price per bottle - based off what you see (if you only know "normal" shampoo, obviously this product is a premium product, so increase the price by x %)
  6. Multiply 2x3x4x5

And voila!

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Raj
Coach
on Feb 03, 2021
FREE 15MIN CONSULTATION | #1 Strategy& / OW coach | >70 5* reviews |90% offers ⇨ prep-success.super.site | MENA, DE, UK

Hi!

Many great answers already around how to think about this. I would structure it around the use cases:

  1. Ethical - vegans who will switch to the shampoo for moral reasons
  2. Cosmetic - people who will switch to the shampoo as they are highly conscious of cosmetic products they use and ingredients
  3. Medical - people who HAVE to switch as vegan shampoos are the only ones suitable e.g. skin conditions like eczema

If I was the interviewer asking this question, I would like to see if you could identity unconventional markets like number 3 above with a bit of lateral thinking.

The general approach around estimating population, % of population for each, willingness to pay etc. would work as per all other market sizing questions.

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Alexander
on Feb 28, 2021

I would probably go for a simple approach:

  • Number of vegan hairwashes
    • Total Population (UK, ~60m)
    • Vegans (~2%)
    • Non-Vegans using vegan products for their reasons (~5%)
    • Frequency of hairwashes (say 4x/week across the board)
  • Number of portions per bottle (say 20)
  • Price per bottle (5GBP, around double the normal price)

That would get you to 60m x 7% x 4 x 50 = 840,000,000 vegan hairwashes with 42m bottles at 5GBP, i.e a market size of ~200mGBP/anno.

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Clara
Coach
on Feb 03, 2021
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

I think the easiest is to calculate the % of vegans -since I don´t think that many more people other than them would buy the shampoos-. 

However, this market sizing does not seem as the classical one you would find in a case - it´s too straight-forward. 

Hope it helps!

Cheers, 

Clara

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Gaurav
Coach
on Feb 03, 2021
#1 MBB Coach(Placed 750+ in MBBs & 1250+ in Tier2)| The Only 360° coach(Ex-McKinsey+Certified Coach+Active recruiter)

I agree with what Udayan has proposed. IMO, you need to take into consideration all three options. 

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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