How many KM of roads in a certain country - market sizing

Market sizing
New answer on Dec 30, 2020
4 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Nov 24, 2020

Hey,

see the market sizing question in the title of this post. Would it be a reasonable approach to extrapolate the KM of road in a country based on the assumption of KM of road / per capita of smaller villages?

My rationale would have been to think of 4-5 small villages close where I grew up in and estimate the KM of road based on my experience of running through these towns.

I then would come up with a KM roads / 1000 people figure and multiply that up to the number of total inhabitants. Additionally, one could make slight adjustment for the area/density as km of roads will not only be a function of people but also of the overall area.

Thoughts?

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Vlad
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Nov 24, 2020
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

First, calculate the area of the country (use a benchmark of your home country or the speed of a plane)

Then split the country into 3 buckets and allocate % of the area:

  1. Urban areas
  2. Rural areas
  3. National parks / uninhabited areas

1. Urban - you take an average size of the block and find out the % of the av city block covered with roads (e.g. 15%). Then assume the % of the area covered with the big cities (personal experience, looking at google maps) and calculate the total city roads area

2. Rural - you just assume much lower density than in Urban (e.g. 50x lower)

3. National Parks - will be even lower, 1%

Sum up all the numbers to get the area of the roads and divide by the average width of the road. Alternatively, you can make it more granular and allocate different width by the road type

Best

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Anonymous on Dec 30, 2020

How do you use the speed of a plane to calculate the area of a country?

(edited)

Henning
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replied on Nov 24, 2020
Bain | passed >15 MBB interviews as a candidate

I think this could be a valid approach. But I would go one level deeper. You could split roads by urban, interurban (highways) and rural roads. For urban and rural, you could make assumptions based on your own experience as you describe above, but then you'll need to add highways that connect the metropolitan areas.

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Antonello
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Content Creator
replied on Dec 30, 2020
McKinsey | MBA professor for consulting interviews

Hi, in addition to the solutions proposed by the other coaches in the discussion, I would like to suggest similar cases in the platform to practice with:

  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-much-would-you-charge-to-clean-all-the-windows-in-seattle-4965
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/market-sizing-milk-consumption-5087
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-calculate-the-value-of-a-cow-4982
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/estimate-number-of-traffic-lights-in-a-london-5692

Hope it helps,
Antonello

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Clara
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replied on Nov 26, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

What you are mentioning could be a way, but it would be highly biased depending on your past experience.

I would better proceed with total area > division between highly populated and low populated > calculation of # of connections.

You could also estimate urban points (small, medium and large) and connections from there.

Best,

Clara

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Vlad gave the best answer

Vlad

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McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School
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