Hard Market Sizings

Market sizing
New answer on Dec 31, 2021
3 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Jul 01, 2019

Hi!

I have some challanges concerning the sturcture of some really hard market sizing cases. For example: The nr of Big music Concerts (Let´s say with > 50 K people in the crowd) ) per year in the whole world. How would you structure a problem like that? Thanks

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Jamie replied on Jul 01, 2019
Former Tier 2, now MBB in Dubai. Here to chill :)

Hey,

I would say you can solve this by going from a supply or a demand side.

I would probably say that I would go from the supply side and try to see # bands capable of hosting 50K+ events. I would say using my own country (~10M) as a referrence point there are ~10 bands capable of filling a venue like that. Using it was a proxy (1 bands per 1M) for the entire world there will be ~8,000 bands capable of doing that.

Usually a band like that goes on tour ~4 months per year, making 1 mega show per week, meaning that each band will have 16 mega events per year. Taking into account the 8,000 bands that we mentioned we will have 128,000 mega concerts in the world per year.

As a sanity check I could say that my countries population is roughly thousandths of the entire world meaning that there are ~128 mega concerts per year there. taking into account the country has less than 10 venues able to holding a crowd that large having roughly ~13 nights fully booked per year seems a bit low. Most likely we underestimated number of mega concerts 1 band does per year.

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Ian
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replied on Dec 31, 2021
MBB | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Vlad
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replied on Jul 01, 2019
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Sorry, what is nr?

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Anonymous A on Jul 01, 2019

Number

Astrid on Jul 02, 2019

Hi Vlad! Good question and great approach to clarify any doubts before giving your final answer :) For follow-up questions, though, it's best to use the comment section directly under the main question above. The answer section should be for answers only :) This ensures a better structure and user experience in our Consulting Q&A. Don’t hesitate to get in touch with me if you have any doubts. Have a great week! Astrid (PrepLounge Community Manager)

Anonymous A on Jul 02, 2019

Vlad, how would you market size this problem? Like Jamie, or do you have another view of it?